FTB-C000626 / Statistical method

Robust Trendline Fitting

Robust Trendline Fitting is a deterministic line-fitting method that selects the largest consensus of confirmed same-kind pivots before refitting.

Also known asconsensus trendline

Definitions

In plain terms

It resists an isolated gross outlier by choosing a supported line instead of fitting every point equally.

Technical

The selected method enumerates two-point hypotheses in log-price space, applies inclusive residual tolerance and deterministic tie-breaking, then performs one OLS refit on locked inliers.

Scope

The fitted line is descriptive geometry; projection is not a price forecast.

Formula

select the maximum-consensus two-point log-price line and refit locked inliers
LaTeX: h^*=\arg\min_h(-|I(h)|,\operatorname{median}|e_i|,|b_h|,\text{pair order})
SymbolMeaningUnit
I(h)inlier set for hypothesisset

Output unit: model

Examples

  • A reviewer computes Robust Trendline Fitting on a small deterministic fixture and checks timing, units, and boundary behavior before publication.

Common misconceptions

  • The fitted line is descriptive geometry; projection is not a price forecast.

Concept relationships

Where this concept is used

Tutorials planned

These catalogued topics use this concept, but their complete build has not shipped yet.

  • D08-F01-A04 Primary

Evidence and governance

  1. Random Sample Consensus: A Paradigm for Model Fitting Fischler and Bolles · first party technical publication

    Supports: preferred label, short definition, technical definition, formula

    Limits: The original applications are image analysis and cartography, not financial trendlines.

  2. sklearn.linear_model.RANSACRegressor scikit-learn · first party technical publication

    Supports: preferred label, short definition, technical definition, formula

    Limits: This package enumerates every two-point hypothesis for small pivot sets instead of using random sampling.

  3. Linear Least Squares Regression NIST/SEMATECH · official standard

    Supports: preferred label, short definition, technical definition, formula

    Limits: A fitted line remains descriptive and is not evidence of a future price path.

  4. numpy.log NumPy · first party technical publication

    Supports: preferred label, short definition, technical definition, formula

    Limits: A log transform requires positive finite prices and does not by itself define a financial level.

  5. numpy.polyfit NumPy · first party technical publication

    Supports: preferred label, short definition, technical definition, formula

    Limits: The glossary freezes its own log-space OLS contract, diagnostics, and tie rules.

Reviewed by
fintech-builder-batch-011
Last reviewed
2026-08-09
Next review
2027-08-09
Record status
evidence reviewed

This record is evidence-reviewed and readable, but not yet promoted to published — it is served noindex,follow and excluded from the sitemap.

Written by

Fintech engineer building market-data and financial systems, and the author of every article, glossary record, and reference implementation on The Fintech Builder.