Divergence Confirmation and Invalidation State Machine

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/** Independent TypeScript reference for D08-F05. Geometry is diagnostic only. */

const EPS = 1e-12;
type Row = Record<string, any>;

function finite(value: unknown): value is number { return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value); }
function requireRule(condition: unknown, message: string): asserts condition { if (!condition) throw new Error(message); }

export function adaptIndicator(indicator: Row): Row {
  const name = String(indicator.name ?? "").trim();
  const family = String(indicator.family ?? "").trim();
  const polarity = indicator.polarity ?? 1;
  const scale = indicator.scale;
  const pivots = indicator.pivots;
  requireRule(name, "indicator name is required"); requireRule(family, "indicator family is required");
  requireRule(polarity === -1 || polarity === 1, "indicator polarity must be -1 or 1");
  requireRule(finite(scale) && scale > 0, "indicator scale must be finite and > 0");
  requireRule(Array.isArray(pivots), "indicator pivots must be a list");
  const adapted = pivots.map((pivot: Row, index: number) => {
    requireRule(pivot && typeof pivot === "object", `indicator pivot ${index} must be an object`);
    requireRule(pivot.kind === "high" || pivot.kind === "low", `indicator pivot ${index} kind is invalid`);
    for (const field of ["event_index", "confirmation_index"]) requireRule(Number.isInteger(pivot[field]), `indicator pivot ${index} ${field} is invalid`);
    requireRule(pivot.confirmation_index >= pivot.event_index, "indicator confirmation precedes event");
    requireRule(finite(pivot.value), `indicator pivot ${index} value is invalid`);
    const prominence = pivot.prominence ?? 0.5;
    requireRule(finite(prominence) && prominence >= 0 && prominence <= 1, "indicator prominence must be in [0,1]");
    return {kind:pivot.kind,event_index:pivot.event_index,confirmation_index:pivot.confirmation_index,raw_value:pivot.value,normalized_value:polarity*pivot.value/scale,prominence};
  });
  return {name,family,polarity,scale,pivots:adapted};
}

function validatePricePivots(pivots: Row[]): void {
  requireRule(Array.isArray(pivots), "price_pivots must be a list"); const identities = new Set<string>();
  pivots.forEach((pivot,index) => {
    requireRule(pivot && typeof pivot === "object", `price pivot ${index} must be an object`);
    requireRule(pivot.kind === "high" || pivot.kind === "low", `price pivot ${index} kind is invalid`);
    for (const field of ["event_index","confirmation_index"]) requireRule(Number.isInteger(pivot[field]), `price pivot ${index} ${field} is invalid`);
    requireRule(pivot.confirmation_index >= pivot.event_index, "price confirmation precedes event");
    requireRule(finite(pivot.price) && pivot.price > 0, "price pivot price must be finite and > 0");
    const prominence = pivot.prominence ?? 0.5; requireRule(finite(prominence) && prominence >= 0 && prominence <= 1, "price prominence must be in [0,1]");
    const key=`${pivot.kind}:${pivot.event_index}`; requireRule(!identities.has(key), "same-kind price pivot event indexes must be unique"); identities.add(key);
  });
}

export function alignPivots(pricePivots: Row[], indicator: Row, maxLag=3): Row[] {
  validatePricePivots(pricePivots); requireRule(Number.isInteger(maxLag) && maxLag >= 0, "max_lag must be an integer >= 0");
  const adapted=adaptIndicator(indicator); const used=new Set<number>(); const aligned:Row[]=[];
  const ordered=[...pricePivots].sort((a,b)=>a.event_index-b.event_index || String(a.kind).localeCompare(String(b.kind)));
  for(const price of ordered){
    const candidates=adapted.pivots.map((item:Row,position:number)=>({lag:Math.abs(item.event_index-price.event_index),event:item.event_index,position,item}))
      .filter((x:Row)=>!used.has(x.position)&&x.item.kind===price.kind&&x.lag<=maxLag)
      .sort((a:Row,b:Row)=>a.lag-b.lag||a.event-b.event);
    if(!candidates.length) continue; const chosen=candidates[0]; used.add(chosen.position); const item=chosen.item;
    aligned.push({kind:price.kind,price_event_index:price.event_index,price_confirmation_index:price.confirmation_index,price:Number(price.price),price_prominence:Number(price.prominence??0.5),indicator_event_index:item.event_index,indicator_confirmation_index:item.confirmation_index,indicator_value:item.normalized_value,indicator_raw_value:item.raw_value,indicator_prominence:item.prominence,lag:chosen.lag,knowledge_index:Math.max(price.confirmation_index,item.confirmation_index),indicator:adapted.name,indicator_family:adapted.family});
  }
  return aligned;
}

function classifyPair(first:Row,second:Row,minPrice:number,minIndicator:number):string|null{
  const pd=(second.price-first.price)/Math.abs(first.price); const id=second.indicator_value-first.indicator_value;
  if(first.kind==="low"){
    if(pd<=-minPrice+EPS&&id>=minIndicator-EPS)return "regular-bullish";
    if(pd>=minPrice-EPS&&id<=-minIndicator+EPS)return "hidden-bullish";
  }else{
    if(pd>=minPrice-EPS&&id<=-minIndicator+EPS)return "regular-bearish";
    if(pd<=-minPrice+EPS&&id>=minIndicator-EPS)return "hidden-bearish";
  }
  return null;
}

export function detectDivergences(pricePivots:Row[],indicators:Row[],options:Row={}):Row[]{
  requireRule(Array.isArray(indicators)&&indicators.length>0,"indicators must be a non-empty list");
  const maxLag=options.max_lag??3,minSeparation=options.min_separation??5,maxSeparation=options.max_separation??40,minPrice=options.min_price_fraction??0.005,minIndicator=options.min_indicator_delta??0.05;
  requireRule(Number.isInteger(minSeparation)&&minSeparation>=1,"min_separation must be an integer >= 1"); requireRule(Number.isInteger(maxSeparation)&&maxSeparation>=minSeparation,"max_separation must be >= min_separation");
  requireRule(finite(minPrice)&&minPrice>=0,"min_price_fraction must be finite and >= 0"); requireRule(finite(minIndicator)&&minIndicator>=0,"min_indicator_delta must be finite and >= 0");
  const events:Row[]=[];
  for(const indicator of indicators){ const aligned=alignPivots(pricePivots,indicator,maxLag);
    for(const kind of ["low","high"]){const same=aligned.filter(x=>x.kind===kind); for(let j=0;j+1<same.length;j++){const first=same[j],second=same[j+1],span=second.price_event_index-first.price_event_index;if(span<minSeparation||span>maxSeparation)continue;const type=classifyPair(first,second,minPrice,minIndicator);if(!type)continue;const pd=(second.price-first.price)/Math.abs(first.price),id=second.indicator_value-first.indicator_value;
      events.push({type,direction:kind==="low"?"bullish":"bearish",kind,indicator:first.indicator,indicator_family:first.indicator_family,price_pair:[first.price_event_index,second.price_event_index],indicator_pair:[first.indicator_event_index,second.indicator_event_index],price_values:[first.price,second.price],indicator_values:[first.indicator_value,second.indicator_value],price_delta_fraction:pd,indicator_delta:id,separation:span,max_alignment_lag:Math.max(first.lag,second.lag),prominence:(first.price_prominence+second.price_prominence+first.indicator_prominence+second.indicator_prominence)/4,candidate_knowledge_index:Math.max(first.knowledge_index,second.knowledge_index),alignment:[first,second]});
    }}
  }
  return events.sort((a,b)=>a.candidate_knowledge_index-b.candidate_knowledge_index||String(a.type).localeCompare(String(b.type))||String(a.indicator).localeCompare(String(b.indicator)));
}

export function scoreDivergence(event:Row,maxLag=3):Row{
  requireRule(event&&typeof event==="object","event must be an object");
  const price=Math.min(Math.abs(event.price_delta_fraction)/0.04,1),indicator=Math.min(Math.abs(event.indicator_delta)/0.15,1),prominence=Math.min(Math.max(event.prominence,0),1),alignment=maxLag===0&&event.max_alignment_lag===0?1:Math.max(0,1-event.max_alignment_lag/Math.max(maxLag,1)),separation=Math.max(0,1-Math.abs(event.separation-24)/24);
  const score=Number((100*(.28*price+.28*indicator+.18*prominence+.14*alignment+.12*separation)).toFixed(6));
  const quality=score>=85?"exceptional":score>=70?"strong":score>=50?"moderate":"weak";
  const round=(x:number)=>Number(x.toFixed(6));
  return {score,quality,components:{price_geometry:round(price),indicator_geometry:round(indicator),prominence:round(prominence),alignment:round(alignment),separation:round(separation)},interpretation:"definition-strength score; not probability or expected return"};
}

export function advanceState(event:Row,bars:Row[],confirmationHorizon=12,invalidationBuffer=.005):Row{
  requireRule(Array.isArray(bars)&&bars.length>0,"bars must be a non-empty list"); requireRule(Number.isInteger(confirmationHorizon)&&confirmationHorizon>=1,"confirmation_horizon must be an integer >= 1"); requireRule(finite(invalidationBuffer)&&invalidationBuffer>=0&&invalidationBuffer<1,"invalidation_buffer must be in [0,1)");
  bars.forEach((bar,index)=>requireRule(bar&&finite(bar.close)&&finite(bar.high)&&finite(bar.low),`bar ${index} is invalid`));
  const [first,second]=event.price_pair,candidate=event.candidate_knowledge_index,direction=event.direction;
  const slice=bars.slice(first,second+1); const confirmation=direction==="bullish"?Math.max(...slice.map(x=>x.high)):Math.min(...slice.map(x=>x.low)); const invalidation=event.price_values[1]*(direction==="bullish"?1-invalidationBuffer:1+invalidationBuffer); const deadline=candidate+confirmationHorizon; const trace:Row[]=[]; let state="candidate",finalIndex:number|null=null;
  for(let index=candidate;index<Math.min(bars.length,deadline+1);index++){const bar=bars[index];if(direction==="bullish"&&bar.low<invalidation-EPS){state="invalidated";finalIndex=index}else if(direction==="bearish"&&bar.high>invalidation+EPS){state="invalidated";finalIndex=index}else if(direction==="bullish"&&bar.close>confirmation+EPS){state="confirmed";finalIndex=index}else if(direction==="bearish"&&bar.close<confirmation-EPS){state="confirmed";finalIndex=index}trace.push({index,state,close:bar.close});if(finalIndex!==null)break;}
  if(finalIndex===null&&bars.length-1>=deadline){state="expired";finalIndex=deadline;if(trace.length)trace[trace.length-1].state="expired"}
  return {state,candidate_index:candidate,final_index:finalIndex,confirmation_level:Number(confirmation.toFixed(6)),invalidation_level:Number(invalidation.toFixed(6)),deadline,trace};
}

export function combineConfluence(events:Row[],weights:Record<string,number>,minimumIndicators=2):Row[]{
  requireRule(Array.isArray(events),"events must be a list");requireRule(weights&&Object.keys(weights).length>0,"weights must be a non-empty object");requireRule(Number.isInteger(minimumIndicators)&&minimumIndicators>=1,"minimum_indicators must be >= 1");const total=Object.values(weights).reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0);requireRule(total>0&&Object.values(weights).every(x=>finite(x)&&x>=0),"weights must be finite, non-negative, and sum > 0");
  const groups=new Map<string,Row[]>();for(const event of events){const key=`${event.type}|${event.price_pair.join(",")}`;groups.set(key,[...(groups.get(key)??[]),event]);}const out:Row[]=[];
  for(const group of groups.values()){const unique=new Map(group.map(x=>[x.indicator,x]));if(unique.size<minimumIndicators)continue;const selected=[...unique.values()],selectedWeight=selected.reduce((sum,x)=>sum+(weights[x.indicator]??0),0);if(selectedWeight<=0)continue;const quality=selected.reduce((sum,x)=>sum+(weights[x.indicator]??0)*scoreDivergence(x).score,0)/selectedWeight,coverage=selectedWeight/total,families=new Set(selected.map(x=>x.indicator_family)).size/selected.length,score=Number((.45*quality+35*coverage+20*families).toFixed(6));out.push({type:selected[0].type,direction:selected[0].direction,price_pair:selected[0].price_pair,indicators:[...unique.keys()].sort(),indicator_count:unique.size,weighted_quality:Number(quality.toFixed(6)),weight_coverage:Number(coverage.toFixed(6)),family_coverage:Number(families.toFixed(6)),confluence_score:score,knowledge_index:Math.max(...selected.map(x=>x.candidate_knowledge_index)),interpretation:"agreement score; not independent evidence or probability"});}
  return out.sort((a,b)=>b.confluence_score-a.confluence_score||String(a.type).localeCompare(String(b.type))||String(a.price_pair).localeCompare(String(b.price_pair)));
}

export function rankUniverse(records:Row[],asOfIndex:number):Row[]{
  requireRule(Array.isArray(records),"records must be a list");requireRule(Number.isInteger(asOfIndex)&&asOfIndex>=0,"as_of_index must be an integer >= 0");const ranked:Row[]=[];
  for(const record of records){if((record.available_index??0)>asOfIndex||record.eligible===false)continue;for(const field of ["confluence_score","freshness","liquidity","data_quality"])requireRule(finite(record[field])&&record[field]>=0&&record[field]<=100,`${field} must be in [0,100]`);requireRule(record.state==="candidate"||record.state==="confirmed","scanner state must be candidate or confirmed");const state=record.state==="confirmed"?100:70;const rank=Number((.55*record.confluence_score+.15*state+.1*record.freshness+.1*record.liquidity+.1*record.data_quality).toFixed(6));ranked.push({symbol:String(record.symbol),state:record.state,divergence_type:record.divergence_type,rank_score:rank,components:{confluence_score:record.confluence_score,freshness:record.freshness,liquidity:record.liquidity,data_quality:record.data_quality},as_of_index:asOfIndex,interpretation:"deterministic triage priority; not an order or return forecast"});}
  ranked.sort((a,b)=>b.rank_score-a.rank_score||a.symbol.localeCompare(b.symbol));ranked.forEach((x,i)=>x.rank=i+1);return ranked;
}

export function runTopic(payload:Row,topicId?:string):Row{
  const selected=topicId??String(payload.topic_id??""),p=payload.parameters??{},price=payload.price_pivots??[],indicators=payload.indicators??[],maxLag=p.max_lag??3;
  if(selected.endsWith("A01")){if(!indicators.length)return{topic_id:selected,state:"warmup",alignments:[],reason:"no-indicator-pivots"};const alignments=alignPivots(price,indicators[0],maxLag);return{topic_id:selected,state:alignments.length>=2?"ready":"warmup",alignments,alignment_count:alignments.length,reason:alignments.length>=2?"aligned":"fewer-than-two-alignments"};}
  if(selected.endsWith("A04")){const adapters=indicators.map(adaptIndicator);return{topic_id:selected,state:adapters.length?"ready":"warmup",adapters,adapter_count:adapters.length};}
  const events=indicators.length?detectDivergences(price,indicators,p):[];
  if(selected.endsWith("A02")){const filtered=events.filter(x=>x.type.startsWith("regular-"));return{topic_id:selected,state:filtered.length?"detected":"not-detected",events:filtered,event_count:filtered.length};}
  if(selected.endsWith("A03")){const filtered=events.filter(x=>x.type.startsWith("hidden-"));return{topic_id:selected,state:filtered.length?"detected":"not-detected",events:filtered,event_count:filtered.length};}
  if(selected.endsWith("A05")){if(!events.length)return{topic_id:selected,state:"not-detected",score:null,reason:"no-divergence-event"};return{topic_id:selected,state:"scored",event:events[0],score:scoreDivergence(events[0],maxLag)};}
  if(selected.endsWith("A06")){if(!events.length)return{topic_id:selected,state:"searching",event:null,lifecycle:null};const event=events[0],lifecycle=advanceState(event,payload.bars??[],p.confirmation_horizon??12,p.invalidation_buffer??.005);return{topic_id:selected,state:lifecycle.state,event,lifecycle};}
  if(selected.endsWith("A07")){const groups=combineConfluence(events,payload.weights??{},p.minimum_indicators??2);return{topic_id:selected,state:groups.length?"confluent":"insufficient-confluence",groups,group_count:groups.length};}
  if(selected.endsWith("A08")){const ranking=rankUniverse(payload.universe??[],payload.as_of_index??((payload.bars??[]).length-1));return{topic_id:selected,state:ranking.length?"ranked":"empty",ranking,eligible_count:ranking.length};}
  throw new Error(`unsupported topic id: ${selected}`);
}