Create a regulated-utility score that connects accounting evidence to ratemaking economics without treating an allowed return as guaranteed earnings.
The decision this tutorial makes visible
Utilities can carry large debt and capital programs because regulated assets, rate cases, and recovery timing shape their economics; a generic industrial score misses those links.
The precise question is: How can a regulated electric utility's earned return, cash leverage, capital structure, coverage, capex funding, regulatory lag, and rate-base growth be reviewed together?
A practitioner needs to know what the diagnostic does and does not justify. A builder needs a contract that can be reproduced from the same point-in-time inputs in Python, TypeScript, a visual, and a browser lab.
Intuition before notation
The model asks whether the utility is earning near its authorized return while financing a long-lived capital program without losing balance-sheet resilience.
The result depends on the declared algorithm scope, input clocks, units, equality and rounding policies, and unsupported-state treatment. Change one of those and the output represents a different decision even when its field name is unchanged.
Scope and nearby methods
The selected U.S.-oriented teaching contract covers a regulated electric utility and keeps allowed-versus-earned ROE, FFO/debt, debt/capital, interest cover, CFO/capex, lag, and rate-base growth visible.
| Variant | Definition | Best use | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selected regulated electric | Return, funding, lag and rate-base panel | Vertically integrated or wires utility review | Not a universal global model |
| Merchant generator | Commodity, dispatch and hedging model | Unregulated generation | Allowed ROE and rate base are poor anchors |
| Water or gas utility | Sector-specific rate-base model | Other regulated networks | Bands require re-estimation |
What is sourced, selected, synthetic, and derived
| Role | Material claim | Evidence | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| sourced fact | FERC-jurisdictional utilities use specialized accounts and regulatory forms. | FERC accounting and forms portals | State and international regimes can differ. |
| package choice | The seven dimensions and centered bands are teaching choices. | Repository contract | FERC does not publish this composite. |
| synthetic input | The canonical rate case and cash-flow figures are fabricated. | canonical-input.json | They are not a named utility. |
| derived output | The score follows the frozen component ledger. | Calculation ledger | It does not predict rate-case outcomes. |
The authoritative sources support only the exact facts named in the claim ledger. They do not certify the synthetic numbers in this tutorial. The repository fixture is deliberately invented for auditability, and the displayed output is author-derived under the selected implementation choice.
Formula, symbols, and numerical policy
U = Σwᵢsᵢ; earned-return component = centered_band(earned ROE − allowed ROE).
| Symbol | Meaning | Unit | Policy |
|---|---|---|---|
| ΔROE | earned less allowed ROE | decimal ratio | Align jurisdiction, utility and period |
| FFO/D | funds from operations / debt | decimal ratio | Reconcile FFO definition |
| CFO/X | operating cash flow / capex | multiple | Same period and perimeter |
- Use IEEE-754 binary64 arithmetic without intermediate rounding.
- Treat percentages as decimal fractions and label percentage-point changes explicitly.
- Clamp only declared component transforms to [0,100]; never clamp raw regulatory or accounting inputs silently.
- Round only for presentation after the full component, penalty, and coverage ledger is stored.
Read the formula in the same order as the algorithm. Validate identity, ordering, units, and supported state first. Apply the selected equality and window rules second. Calculate with unrounded numeric values. Round only at the declared presentation boundary, and preserve null as a diagnostic rather than coercing it to zero.
Build the algorithm
- Separate regulated electric operations from merchant or other businesses.
- Align allowed and earned ROE to one jurisdiction and period.
- Calculate cash-debt, capital, coverage, and capex-funding diagnostics.
- Score lag and rate-base growth with declared package bands.
- Publish the score beside the regulatory scope and component ledger.
Production-minded operational checklist
- Resolve sector and framework before calculating.
- Freeze scoring and knowledge-cutoff timestamps.
- Reconcile each input to its filing, regulator, provider, and reporting perimeter.
- Inspect component scores, penalties, and coverage before the headline.
- Retain abstention and unsupported-scope reasons for the integrated router.
The checklist is intentionally strict: an explicit rejection is safer than a plausible output built from stale, malformed, or unsupported state.
Worked synthetic example
The canonical fixture is synthetic teaching data, not an observed control
event, customer order, or broker execution. Its primary author-derived output,
fundamental_score, is 67.564016117901. The complete input and output
are in datasets/canonical-input.json and datasets/expected-output.json.
The fixture earns 9.1% against a 9.5% allowed ROE, funds part of capex internally, and carries a defined eight-month lag. Each channel enters through its own component before weighting.
Counterfactual checkpoint
Extend regulatory lag. Hold all financial values fixed and increase regulatory lag from 8 toward 18 months. The output changes because Only the lag component weakens, demonstrating why regulatory timing is not another leverage ratio.
The structured result retains state and diagnostics in addition to the primary number. That makes the calculation independently reviewable and prevents a partial, null, rejected, or venue-bounded outcome from being mistaken for an unqualified value.
Boundary and counterexample workbook
The playground computes every scenario at 61 deterministic parameter states.
The table uses the declared focus step and states whether that focus reproduces
the canonical fixture. The full state ledger and compressed transition
segments are in datasets/scenario-results.json.
| Scenario | Review focus | Purpose | State | Primary output | Diagnostic | Decision segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canonical driver sweep | Step 30 · canonical fixture | Move one primary causal driver through the canonical midpoint. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 67.6 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 1 |
| Adverse operating stress | Step 30 · comparison focus | Apply a controlled operating or earnings stress while retaining the framework. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 66.3 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 1 |
| Balance-sheet resilience | Step 30 · comparison focus | Vary a funding, leverage, capital, or liquidity channel. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 68.1 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 2 |
| Boundary crossing | Step 30 · comparison focus | Cross a declared review boundary and inspect equality behavior. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 64.2 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 1 |
| Evidence-quality stress | Step 30 · comparison focus | Change evidence usability or freshness without hiding the diagnostic. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 68.0 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 2 |
| Concentration or mix | Step 30 · canonical fixture | Vary concentration, mix, or component balance. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 67.6 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 1 |
| Recovery path | Step 30 · comparison focus | Trace a recovery from an adverse state toward a resilient state. | mixed-review-band | fundamental score 68.0 | mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands | 1 |
These rows are not backtest observations. They are controlled counterexamples that expose how one driver changes the state, output, or reason code while the rest of the contract stays fixed.
Visualize the boundary
Open this SVG at full size, or use the guided playground to compare the seven topic-specific canonical, boundary, policy, and failure scenarios.
The Mermaid flow answers where the selected calculation sits in the processing sequence. The SVG keeps the formula, output, decision boundary, and invariant visible together. The lab lets the reader step through the same structured states without changing the underlying definition.
Implementation walkthrough
The Python and TypeScript references begin with the same validation contract, reject malformed and unsupported state before calculation, preserve declared ordering and rounding policies, and return structured diagnostics rather than one context-free number.
The main implementation branches are:
- Merchant or nonregulated operations dominate — Reroute, because Allowed return and regulatory lag no longer explain the economics.
- Allowed and earned ROE scopes differ — Abstain from the earned-return component, because The gap would be dimensionally valid but economically false.
- FERC/accounting definitions reconcile — Publish score with regulatory and funding ledgers, because Users can inspect the causal channels.
Neither reference silently fetches data, mutates caller-owned inputs outside the declared engine behavior, guesses hidden state, or substitutes a provider default. Shared JSON fixtures make value, null, state, and reason-code drift visible across languages.
Testing and validation
Definition tests compare every canonical field, reject malformed state, and exercise the material boundary. Family validation recomputes every playground state from the reference function. Independent arithmetic is recorded beside the fixture rather than inferred only from implementation output.
The audit must preserve these invariants:
- framework and policy version
- point-in-time normalized input ledger
- component transform thresholds and scores
- weight vector and penalties
- coverage, state, reason, and final output
Passing the suite proves the selected package contract and Python/TypeScript parity; it does not prove empirical usefulness for a live issuer universe.
Failure modes and misuse
- The 0-100 teaching bands and default weights are package choices, not regulations, ratings, or market standards.
- Definition fidelity and code parity do not establish predictive validity, calibration, causality, fair value, or investment performance.
- Accounting frameworks, prudential regimes, business mixes, and reporting perimeters can make apparently identical ratios incomparable.
- A complete component ledger can still omit material qualitative, governance, legal, catastrophe, operational, or market risks.
Debugging order
When a result looks surprising, inspect the state in this order:
- Confirm framework and reporting perimeter
- Check units and knowledge dates
- Recalculate raw intermediates
- Inspect bounded component transforms
- Reconcile weights, penalties, coverage, and state
Evidence and historical boundary
Historical decision: not useful. A named Utility Fundamental Score case would introduce issuer identity, filing and regulator scope, restatement, data-license, and scoring-policy questions without teaching the deterministic mechanism better than a controlled synthetic record.
The primary sources are FERC accounting, FERC electric forms, SEC non-GAAP C&DIs. They support the source roles listed in the research ledger, not a redistributable historical observation, a private participant decision, production conformance certification, execution-quality result, profitability claim, or prediction claim.
Summary and next topic
You can now compute and audit Utility Fundamental Score before passing its versioned output to the integrated scoring router. The learning flow is: REIT Fundamental Score → Utility Fundamental Score → Early-Stage Liquidity and Runway Score. Carry the result forward only with its scope, clock, state, and evidence label.
Verified model contract — Level 1
- Selected calculation:
U = Σwᵢsᵢ; earned-return component = centered_band(earned ROE − allowed ROE). - Reproducibility boundary: the canonical fixture is synthetic; the stored input, intermediate ledger, output, and cross-language implementations define the executable example.
- Interpretation ceiling: Definition fidelity and code parity do not establish predictive validity, calibration, causality, fair value, or investment performance.
Level 2 learning layer
How to choose this model or a nearby method
| Method | Best use | Assumption that must hold | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selected regulated electric | Vertically integrated or wires utility review | Regulated perimeter is isolated | Not a universal global model |
| Merchant generator | Unregulated generation | Market exposure dominates | Allowed ROE and rate base are poor anchors |
| Water or gas utility | Other regulated networks | Different operations and regulators | Bands require re-estimation |
The selected package is appropriate only when its framework tag, reporting perimeter, unit policy, and point-in-time evidence contract are all satisfied. If a stop condition in the topic decision matrix fires, use the named review, reroute, or abstention state instead of forcing a score.
Compact glossary
| Symbol | Meaning | Unit | Policy |
|---|---|---|---|
ΔROE | earned less allowed ROE | decimal ratio | Align jurisdiction, utility and period |
FFO/D | funds from operations / debt | decimal ratio | Reconcile FFO definition |
CFO/X | operating cash flow / capex | multiple | Same period and perimeter |
Visual asset map
| Asset | Learning job | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Article hero | See route → normalize → calculate → decide at a glance | Ready |
| System map | Connect formula, boundary, invariant, counterfactual, and output | Ready |
| Model anatomy | Follow the four-stage calculation pipeline | Ready |
| Component ledger | Reconstruct the headline from named dimensions | Ready |
| Decision boundary | Separate a computable result from a permissible interpretation | Ready |
| Evidence clock | Prevent point-in-time leakage | Ready |
| Mermaid flow | Inspect the text-native algorithm flow | Ready |
| Guided playground | Predict, reveal, sweep 427 calculations, and explain state changes | Ready |
Related concepts and continuation
- Previous family topic: D18-F10-A03
- Next family topic: D18-F10-A05
- Weight governance: D18-F10-A08
- Coverage and abstention: D18-F10-A09
Deep visual atlas
The teaching sequence is route → normalize → calculate → decide. Use the component ledger to reconstruct the headline, the boundary map to stop unsupported interpretation, and the evidence clock to block hindsight.
Guided playground protocol
- Orient: identify the framework, active driver, and invariant.
- Predict: commit to decrease, stay flat, or increase before revealing the adjacent numeric result.
- Experiment: sweep all 61 computed states in each of seven scenarios and inspect discontinuities.
- Explain: reconcile
earned-versus-allowed ROE gap and capex-funding ratioto the headline and apply this boundary: A merchant-heavy or mismatched rate-case perimeter must reroute.
Rendered from the canonical Mermaid sources linked by this article.
Utility Fundamental Score calculation flow
This flow identifies the selected calculation stages and the structured output.
Takeaway: Utility scoring must join ratemaking timing to—not substitute for—cash and leverage evidence.
ReferencesPrimary sources and evidence notesExpand the source trail, evidence role, and limitations behind the engineering choices.
Expand the source trail, evidence role, and limitations behind the engineering choices.
S1 — Accounting Matters
- Organization or authors: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
- Source type: Official regulatory accounting portal
- Publication or effective date: Accessed 2026-08-08
- Version: Current web portal
- URL or DOI: https://www.ferc.gov/accounting-matters-0
- Accessed: 2026-08-09
- Jurisdiction: U.S. FERC-jurisdictional utilities
- Supports: Jurisdictional utilities maintain books under FERC Uniform Systems of Accounts and report through specified forms.
- Limitations: State-regulated utilities and non-U.S. regimes can use different accounts and ratemaking rules.
S2 — Electric Industry Forms
- Organization or authors: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
- Source type: Official reporting portal
- Publication or effective date: Accessed 2026-08-08
- Version: Current forms page
- URL or DOI: https://www.ferc.gov/general-information-0/electric-industry-forms
- Accessed: 2026-08-09
- Jurisdiction: U.S. FERC-jurisdictional electric utilities
- Supports: FERC Form 1 and 1-F are financial and operating reports used for regulation, oversight, and audits.
- Limitations: Form applicability and filing status do not validate this package's score bands.
S3 — Non-GAAP Financial Measures Compliance and Disclosure Interpretations
- Organization or authors: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- Source type: Official staff guidance
- Publication or effective date: Updated 2022; accessed 2026-08-08
- Version: Current web version
- URL or DOI: https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/staff-guidance/corporation-finance-interpretations/non-gaap-financial-measures
- Accessed: 2026-08-09
- Jurisdiction: United States SEC reporting
- Supports: Adjusted measures can be misleading when definitions, recurring adjustments, prominence, or reconciliation are inadequate.
- Limitations: Does not standardize analyst AFFO, utility FFO, or normalized commodity earnings.
Evidence boundary
Sources define sector measures, disclosure regimes, and methodological cautions. They do not endorse the repository's synthetic fixtures, weights, score bands, or investment use.
Full dependency-light reference implementations in both supported languages.
/** Deterministic TypeScript reference for D18-F10 sector-specific scoring. */
export type RecordValue = Record<string, any>;
const numberValue = (data: RecordValue, name: string): number => {
const value = data[name];
if (typeof value !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new TypeError(`${name} must be a finite number`);
return value;
};
const nonnegative = (data: RecordValue, name: string): number => {
const value = numberValue(data, name); if (value < 0) throw new RangeError(`${name} must be nonnegative`); return value;
};
const positive = (data: RecordValue, name: string): number => {
const value = numberValue(data, name); if (value <= 0) throw new RangeError(`${name} must be positive`); return value;
};
const textValue = (data: RecordValue, name: string): string => {
const value = data[name]; if (typeof value !== "string" || !value.trim()) throw new TypeError(`${name} must be a nonempty string`); return value.trim();
};
const dateValue = (value: unknown, name: string): Date => {
if (typeof value !== "string" || !/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(value)) throw new TypeError(`${name} must be YYYY-MM-DD`);
const result = new Date(`${value}T00:00:00Z`); if (!Number.isFinite(result.getTime()) || result.toISOString().slice(0, 10) !== value) throw new RangeError(`${name} must be YYYY-MM-DD`); return result;
};
const requireFramework = (data: RecordValue, expected: string): void => { if (textValue(data, "framework") !== expected) throw new RangeError(`framework must be ${expected}`); };
const clamp = (value: number, low = 0, high = 100): number => Math.min(high, Math.max(low, value));
const higher = (value: number, weak: number, strong: number): number => { if (strong <= weak) throw new RangeError("strong threshold must exceed weak threshold"); return clamp(100 * (value - weak) / (strong - weak)); };
const lower = (value: number, strong: number, weak: number): number => { if (weak <= strong) throw new RangeError("weak threshold must exceed strong threshold"); return clamp(100 * (weak - value) / (weak - strong)); };
const centered = (value: number, center: number, fullDistance: number, zeroDistance: number): number => {
if (zeroDistance <= fullDistance) throw new RangeError("zero-score distance must exceed full-score distance");
return clamp(100 * (zeroDistance - Math.abs(value - center)) / (zeroDistance - fullDistance));
};
const weightsFor = (data: RecordValue, names: string[]): Record<string, number> => {
const raw = data.weights;
if (!raw || typeof raw !== "object" || Array.isArray(raw) || Object.keys(raw).sort().join("|") !== [...names].sort().join("|")) throw new RangeError("weights must contain exactly the declared component names");
const result = Object.fromEntries(names.map(name => [name, nonnegative(raw, name)]));
const total = Object.values(result).reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0);
if (Math.abs(total - 1) > 1e-9) throw new RangeError("weights must sum to 1");
return result;
};
const weightedScore = (components: Record<string, number>, weights: Record<string, number>): number => Object.entries(components).reduce((sum, [name, value]) => sum + value * weights[name], 0);
const scoreState = (score: number): string => score >= 75 ? "strong-review-band" : score >= 50 ? "mixed-review-band" : "weak-review-band";
function bankScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
requireFramework(data, "basel-iii-teaching-v1");
const names = ["capital", "leverage", "short_liquidity", "stable_funding", "asset_quality", "coverage", "margin", "efficiency"];
const weights = weightsFor(data, names);
const values = {cet1_ratio: nonnegative(data,"cet1_ratio"), leverage_ratio: nonnegative(data,"leverage_ratio"), lcr: nonnegative(data,"lcr"), nsfr: nonnegative(data,"nsfr"), npl_ratio: nonnegative(data,"npl_ratio"), provision_coverage_ratio: nonnegative(data,"provision_coverage_ratio"), net_interest_margin: numberValue(data,"net_interest_margin"), cost_income_ratio: nonnegative(data,"cost_income_ratio")};
const components = {capital:higher(values.cet1_ratio,.07,.14), leverage:higher(values.leverage_ratio,.03,.06), short_liquidity:higher(values.lcr,1,1.4), stable_funding:higher(values.nsfr,1,1.3), asset_quality:lower(values.npl_ratio,.02,.08), coverage:higher(values.provision_coverage_ratio,.6,1.2), margin:higher(values.net_interest_margin,.01,.04), efficiency:lower(values.cost_income_ratio,.4,.7)};
const minimums = data.minimums; if (!minimums || typeof minimums !== "object" || Array.isArray(minimums)) throw new TypeError("minimums must be an object");
const checks: Record<string,number> = {cet1_ratio:nonnegative(minimums,"cet1_ratio"), leverage_ratio:nonnegative(minimums,"leverage_ratio"), lcr:nonnegative(minimums,"lcr"), nsfr:nonnegative(minimums,"nsfr")};
const breaches = Object.entries(checks).filter(([name, minimum]) => values[name as keyof typeof values] < minimum).map(([name])=>name);
const base = weightedScore(components, weights), penalty = 12.5 * breaches.length, score = clamp(base - penalty);
return {state:breaches.length?"prudential-floor-review":scoreState(score),method:"bank-sector-score-v1",component_scores:components,weights,base_score:base,floor_breaches:breaches,penalty,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"package-bands-with-declared-prudential-minimums"};
}
function insuranceScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
requireFramework(data,"solvency-ii-nonlife-teaching-v1");
const names=["solvency","minimum_capital","underwriting","reserve_quality","own_fund_quality","concentration","profitability"], weights=weightsFor(data,names);
const values={scr_coverage_ratio:nonnegative(data,"scr_coverage_ratio"),mcr_coverage_ratio:nonnegative(data,"mcr_coverage_ratio"),combined_ratio:nonnegative(data,"combined_ratio"),adverse_reserve_development_ratio:numberValue(data,"adverse_reserve_development_ratio"),tier1_own_funds_share:nonnegative(data,"tier1_own_funds_share"),investment_concentration_ratio:nonnegative(data,"investment_concentration_ratio"),return_on_equity:numberValue(data,"return_on_equity")};
const components={solvency:higher(values.scr_coverage_ratio,1,2),minimum_capital:higher(values.mcr_coverage_ratio,1,3),underwriting:lower(values.combined_ratio,.88,1.08),reserve_quality:lower(values.adverse_reserve_development_ratio,-.02,.08),own_fund_quality:higher(values.tier1_own_funds_share,.5,.9),concentration:lower(values.investment_concentration_ratio,.1,.4),profitability:higher(values.return_on_equity,.02,.15)};
const breaches=["scr_coverage_ratio","mcr_coverage_ratio"].filter(name=>values[name as keyof typeof values]<1),base=weightedScore(components,weights),penalty=20*breaches.length,score=clamp(base-penalty);
return {state:breaches.length?"capital-requirement-review":scoreState(score),method:"insurance-sector-score-v1",component_scores:components,weights,base_score:base,floor_breaches:breaches,penalty,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"solvency-ii-tagged-nonlife-package-bands"};
}
function reitScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
requireFramework(data,"nareit-equity-reit-teaching-v1");
const names=["distribution","leverage","coverage","occupancy","same_store_growth","liquidity"],weights=weightsFor(data,names);
const ffo=numberValue(data,"nareit_ffo"),capex=nonnegative(data,"recurring_capex"),rent=numberValue(data,"straight_line_rent_adjustment"),dividends=positive(data,"common_dividends"),ebitda=positive(data,"ebitda_re"),interest=positive(data,"interest_expense"),nearDebt=positive(data,"near_term_debt_maturities");
const affo=ffo-capex-rent,distribution=affo/dividends,leverage=nonnegative(data,"net_debt")/ebitda,interestCoverage=ebitda/interest,liquidity=nonnegative(data,"available_liquidity")/nearDebt;
const components={distribution:higher(distribution,.8,1.4),leverage:lower(leverage,3.5,8),coverage:higher(interestCoverage,1.5,5),occupancy:higher(nonnegative(data,"occupancy_ratio"),.8,.97),same_store_growth:higher(numberValue(data,"same_store_noi_growth"),-.05,.08),liquidity:higher(liquidity,.75,2)};
const score=weightedScore(components,weights);
return {state:affo<=0?"affo-proxy-deficit-review":scoreState(score),method:"reit-sector-score-v1",nareit_ffo:ffo,affo_proxy:affo,distribution_coverage:distribution,net_debt_to_ebitda_re:leverage,interest_coverage:interestCoverage,liquidity_coverage:liquidity,component_scores:components,weights,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"nareit-ffo-plus-explicit-package-affo-proxy"};
}
function utilityScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
requireFramework(data,"ferc-regulated-electric-teaching-v1");
const names=["earned_return","cash_debt","capital_structure","interest_coverage","capex_funding","regulatory_lag","rate_base_growth"],weights=weightsFor(data,names);
const allowed=positive(data,"allowed_roe"),earned=numberValue(data,"earned_roe"),debt=positive(data,"total_debt"),ffoDebt=numberValue(data,"funds_from_operations")/debt,interestCoverage=numberValue(data,"ebit")/positive(data,"interest_expense"),capexFunding=numberValue(data,"cash_from_operations")/positive(data,"capital_expenditure");
const components={earned_return:centered(earned-allowed,0,.005,.04),cash_debt:higher(ffoDebt,.08,.22),capital_structure:lower(nonnegative(data,"debt_to_capital"),.4,.65),interest_coverage:higher(interestCoverage,1.5,5),capex_funding:higher(capexFunding,.4,1),regulatory_lag:lower(nonnegative(data,"regulatory_lag_months"),3,18),rate_base_growth:centered(numberValue(data,"rate_base_growth"),.05,.01,.08)};
const score=weightedScore(components,weights);
return {state:scoreState(score),method:"utility-sector-score-v1",earned_allowed_roe_gap:earned-allowed,ffo_to_debt:ffoDebt,interest_coverage:interestCoverage,capex_funding_ratio:capexFunding,component_scores:components,weights,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"ferc-tagged-package-bands"};
}
function earlyStageScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
requireFramework(data,"early-stage-liquidity-teaching-v1");
const names=["runway","burn_trend","obligation_cover","revenue_cover"],weights=weightsFor(data,names),cashFlows=data.monthly_net_cash_flows,revenues=data.monthly_revenue;
if(!Array.isArray(cashFlows)||cashFlows.length<6)throw new RangeError("monthly_net_cash_flows must contain at least 6 observations");
if(!Array.isArray(revenues)||revenues.length!==cashFlows.length)throw new RangeError("monthly_revenue must match cash-flow history");
const flows=cashFlows.map((v:any)=>numberValue({v},"v")),revs=revenues.map((v:any)=>nonnegative({v},"v"));
const unrestricted=nonnegative(data,"unrestricted_cash"),investments=nonnegative(data,"liquid_investments"),facility=nonnegative(data,"unconditionally_committed_facility"),obligations=nonnegative(data,"near_term_obligations"),minimumCash=nonnegative(data,"minimum_operating_cash");
const available=unrestricted+investments+facility-obligations-minimumCash,latest=flows.slice(-6),burn=Math.max(0,-latest.reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/latest.length),prior=Math.max(0,-latest.slice(0,3).reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/3),current=Math.max(0,-latest.slice(3).reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/3),burnRatio=prior>0?current/prior:(current===0?0:2),gross=unrestricted+investments+facility,obligationCover=obligations>0?gross/obligations:10,latestRevenue=revs.slice(-3).reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/3,revenueCover=current>0?latestRevenue/current:10,runway=burn>0?available/burn:null;
const components={runway:runway===null?100:higher(runway,6,24),burn_trend:lower(burnRatio,.75,1.25),obligation_cover:higher(obligationCover,.75,2),revenue_cover:higher(revenueCover,0,1)},score=weightedScore(components,weights);
const state=available<0?"negative-available-liquidity":runway===null?"nonburning-observation":runway<12?"funding-window-under-12-months":scoreState(score);
return {state,method:"early-stage-runway-score-v1",available_liquidity:available,monthly_burn:burn,prior_three_month_burn:prior,latest_three_month_burn:current,burn_ratio:burnRatio,runway_months:runway,obligation_coverage:obligationCover,revenue_to_burn:revenueCover,component_scores:components,weights,runway_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"historical-burn-sensitivity-not-management-forecast"};
}
const medianValue=(values:number[]):number=>{const sorted=[...values].sort((a,b)=>a-b),middle=Math.floor(sorted.length/2);return sorted.length%2?sorted[middle]:(sorted[middle-1]+sorted[middle])/2;};
function cyclicalScore(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
requireFramework(data,"cyclical-midcycle-teaching-v1");
const names=["normalized_margin","normalized_leverage","cash_consistency","cycle_balance"],weights=weightsFor(data,names),arrays:Record<string,number[]>={};
for(const name of ["realized_price_history","unit_cost_history","volume_history","free_cash_flow_history"]){const raw=data[name];if(!Array.isArray(raw)||raw.length<7)throw new RangeError(`${name} must contain at least 7 observations`);arrays[name]=raw.map((v:any)=>numberValue({v},"v"));}
if(new Set(Object.values(arrays).map(v=>v.length)).size!==1)throw new RangeError("cycle histories must have equal length");
const prices=arrays.realized_price_history,costs=arrays.unit_cost_history,volumes=arrays.volume_history;if([...prices,...costs,...volumes].some(v=>v<=0))throw new RangeError("price, cost, and volume histories must be positive");
const normalizedPrice=medianValue(prices),normalizedCost=medianValue(costs),normalizedVolume=medianValue(volumes),revenue=normalizedPrice*normalizedVolume,ebitda=(normalizedPrice-normalizedCost)*normalizedVolume-nonnegative(data,"fixed_costs"),margin=ebitda/revenue,netDebt=nonnegative(data,"net_debt"),leverage=ebitda>0?netDebt/ebitda:null,positiveFcf=arrays.free_cash_flow_history.filter(v=>v>0).length/arrays.free_cash_flow_history.length,currentPrice=positive(data,"current_realized_price"),percentile=prices.filter(v=>v<=currentPrice).length/prices.length;
const components={normalized_margin:higher(margin,0,.3),normalized_leverage:leverage===null?0:lower(leverage,.5,4),cash_consistency:higher(positiveFcf,.3,.9),cycle_balance:centered(percentile,.5,.1,.5)},score=weightedScore(components,weights);
return {state:ebitda<=0?"nonpositive-midcycle-ebitda-review":scoreState(score),method:"cyclical-midcycle-normalization-v1",normalized_price:normalizedPrice,normalized_unit_cost:normalizedCost,normalized_volume:normalizedVolume,normalized_revenue:revenue,normalized_ebitda:ebitda,normalized_margin:margin,normalized_net_leverage:leverage,positive_fcf_ratio:positiveFcf,cycle_percentile:percentile,component_scores:components,weights,normalized_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"point-in-time-median-cycle-window"};
}
function holdingCompanyScore(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
requireFramework(data,"holding-company-lookthrough-teaching-v1");
const names=["nav_buffer","lookthrough_leverage","parent_coverage","diversification","freshness","listed_coverage"],weights=weightsFor(data,names),holdings=data.holdings;
if(!Array.isArray(holdings)||holdings.length<2)throw new RangeError("holdings must contain at least two records");
const ids=new Set<string>(),rows=holdings.map((raw:any)=>{if(!raw||typeof raw!=="object"||Array.isArray(raw))throw new TypeError("each holding must be an object");const id=textValue(raw,"id");if(ids.has(id))throw new RangeError("holding IDs must be unique");ids.add(id);const ownership=numberValue(raw,"ownership_ratio");if(!(ownership>0&&ownership<=1))throw new RangeError("ownership_ratio must be in (0, 1]");if(typeof raw.listed!=="boolean"||typeof raw.stale!=="boolean")throw new TypeError("listed and stale must be booleans");return{id,ownership_ratio:ownership,attributable_equity_value:ownership*nonnegative(raw,"equity_value"),attributable_debt:ownership*nonnegative(raw,"debt"),attributable_dividends:ownership*nonnegative(raw,"dividends_to_parent"),listed:raw.listed,stale:raw.stale};});
const parentCash=nonnegative(data,"parent_cash"),parentDebt=nonnegative(data,"parent_debt"),other=nonnegative(data,"other_parent_liabilities"),parentInterest=positive(data,"parent_interest_expense"),stake=rows.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_equity_value,0),gav=stake+parentCash;if(gav<=0)throw new RangeError("gross asset value must be positive");
const nav=gav-parentDebt-other,attributableDebt=rows.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_debt,0),enterprise=stake+attributableDebt+parentCash,leverage=enterprise>0?(parentDebt+attributableDebt)/enterprise:1,parentCoverage=rows.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_dividends,0)/parentInterest,shares=stake>0?rows.map(r=>r.attributable_equity_value/stake):[1],concentration=shares.reduce((s,v)=>s+v*v,0),freshness=stake>0?rows.filter(r=>!r.stale).reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_equity_value,0)/stake:0,listed=stake>0?rows.filter(r=>r.listed).reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_equity_value,0)/stake:0,navRatio=nav/gav;
const components={nav_buffer:higher(navRatio,.2,.8),lookthrough_leverage:lower(leverage,.2,.65),parent_coverage:higher(parentCoverage,1,4),diversification:lower(concentration,.25,.7),freshness:higher(freshness,.6,1),listed_coverage:higher(listed,.3,1)},score=weightedScore(components,weights),marketCap=data.parent_market_cap===undefined?null:nonnegative(data,"parent_market_cap"),discount=marketCap===null||nav<=0?null:1-marketCap/nav;
return {state:nav<=0?"nonpositive-nav-review":scoreState(score),method:"holding-company-lookthrough-score-v1",holding_ledger:rows,gross_asset_value:gav,net_asset_value:nav,attributable_subsidiary_debt:attributableDebt,lookthrough_leverage:leverage,parent_interest_coverage:parentCoverage,concentration_hhi:concentration,fresh_value_coverage:freshness,listed_value_coverage:listed,discount_to_nav:discount,component_scores:components,weights,look_through_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"attributable-stakes-with-parent-bridge"};
}
const sigmoid=(value:number):number=>value>=0?1/(1+Math.exp(-value)):Math.exp(value)/(1+Math.exp(value));
const projectSimplex=(values:number[]):number[]=>{const ordered=[...values].sort((a,b)=>b-a);let cumulative=0,rho=0;ordered.forEach((value,index)=>{cumulative+=value;if(value-(cumulative-1)/(index+1)>0)rho=index+1;});const theta=(ordered.slice(0,rho).reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0)-1)/rho,projected=values.map(v=>Math.max(v-theta,0)),total=projected.reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0);return projected.map(v=>v/total);};
const brier=(rows:number[][],labels:number[],weights:number[],intercept:number,slope:number):number=>rows.reduce((sum,row,index)=>{const score=row.reduce((s,v,j)=>s+weights[j]*v,0)/100,p=sigmoid(intercept+slope*(score-.5));return sum+(p-labels[index])**2;},0)/rows.length;
function calibrateWeights(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
requireFramework(data,"sector-weight-calibration-teaching-v1");
const names=data.component_names,rowsRaw=data.feature_rows,labelsRaw=data.labels,datesRaw=data.observation_dates;
if(!Array.isArray(names)||names.length<2||new Set(names).size!==names.length||!names.every((n:any)=>typeof n==="string"&&n))throw new RangeError("component_names must be unique nonempty strings");
if(!Array.isArray(rowsRaw)||rowsRaw.length<12)throw new RangeError("feature_rows must contain at least 12 observations");if(!Array.isArray(labelsRaw)||labelsRaw.length!==rowsRaw.length)throw new RangeError("labels must match feature_rows");if(!Array.isArray(datesRaw)||datesRaw.length!==rowsRaw.length)throw new RangeError("observation_dates must match feature_rows");
const rows=rowsRaw.map((row:any)=>{if(!Array.isArray(row)||row.length!==names.length)throw new RangeError("each feature row must match component_names");const values=row.map((v:any)=>numberValue({v},"v"));if(values.some((v:number)=>v<0||v>100))throw new RangeError("feature scores must be within [0, 100]");return values;});
const labels=labelsRaw.map((v:any)=>{if(v!==0&&v!==1)throw new RangeError("labels must be binary 0/1 integers");return v;});const dates=datesRaw.map((v:any)=>dateValue(v,"observation_dates"));if(dates.some((v:Date,i:number)=>i<dates.length-1&&v.getTime()>=dates[i+1].getTime()))throw new RangeError("observation_dates must be strictly increasing");
const split=Math.trunc(numberValue(data,"train_end_index"));if(split<8||split>rows.length-4)throw new RangeError("train_end_index must leave at least 8 training and 4 validation rows");const baseMap=data.base_weights;if(!baseMap||typeof baseMap!=="object"||Array.isArray(baseMap)||Object.keys(baseMap).sort().join("|")!==[...names].sort().join("|"))throw new RangeError("base_weights must match component_names");const base=names.map((n:string)=>nonnegative(baseMap,n));if(Math.abs(base.reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)-1)>1e-9)throw new RangeError("base_weights must sum to 1");
const learningRate=positive(data,"learning_rate"),ridge=nonnegative(data,"ridge_penalty"),slope=positive(data,"logit_slope"),iterations=Math.trunc(positive(data,"iterations"));if(iterations>5000)throw new RangeError("iterations must not exceed 5000");let weights=[...base],intercept=0;const trainRows=rows.slice(0,split),validationRows=rows.slice(split),trainLabels=labels.slice(0,split),validationLabels=labels.slice(split);
for(let iteration=0;iteration<iterations;iteration++){const probabilities=trainRows.map((row:number[])=>sigmoid(intercept+slope*(row.reduce((s:number,v:number,j:number)=>s+weights[j]*v,0)/100-.5))),residuals=probabilities.map((p:number,i:number)=>p-trainLabels[i]),gradIntercept=residuals.reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/residuals.length,gradWeights=names.map((_:string,column:number)=>residuals.reduce((sum:number,residual:number,i:number)=>sum+residual*slope*trainRows[i][column]/100,0)/trainRows.length+ridge*(weights[column]-base[column]));intercept-=learningRate*gradIntercept;weights=projectSimplex(weights.map((v:number,i:number)=>v-learningRate*gradWeights[i]));}
const baseTrain=brier(trainRows,trainLabels,base,0,slope),baseValidation=brier(validationRows,validationLabels,base,0,slope),candidateTrain=brier(trainRows,trainLabels,weights,intercept,slope),candidateValidation=brier(validationRows,validationLabels,weights,intercept,slope),improved=candidateValidation<=baseValidation,selected=improved?weights:base,selectedIntercept=improved?intercept:0,selectedValidation=improved?candidateValidation:baseValidation;
return {state:improved?"calibrated-improved":"retain-base-weights",method:"nonnegative-simplex-logloss-v1",component_names:names,base_weights:Object.fromEntries(names.map((n:string,i:number)=>[n,base[i]])),candidate_weights:Object.fromEntries(names.map((n:string,i:number)=>[n,weights[i]])),selected_weights:Object.fromEntries(names.map((n:string,i:number)=>[n,selected[i]])),candidate_intercept:intercept,selected_intercept:selectedIntercept,base_train_brier:baseTrain,base_validation_brier:baseValidation,candidate_train_brier:candidateTrain,candidate_validation_brier:candidateValidation,selected_validation_brier:selectedValidation,weight_shift_l1:weights.reduce((s:number,v:number,i:number)=>s+Math.abs(v-base[i]),0),train_rows:trainRows.length,validation_rows:validationRows.length,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"temporal-holdout-governs-selection"};
}
const ROUTES:Record<string,[string,string,string[]]>={bank:["D18-F10-A01","basel-iii-teaching-v1",["cet1_ratio","leverage_ratio","lcr","nsfr","npl_ratio","provision_coverage_ratio","net_interest_margin","cost_income_ratio"]],insurance:["D18-F10-A02","solvency-ii-nonlife-teaching-v1",["scr_coverage_ratio","mcr_coverage_ratio","combined_ratio","adverse_reserve_development_ratio","tier1_own_funds_share","investment_concentration_ratio","return_on_equity"]],reit:["D18-F10-A03","nareit-equity-reit-teaching-v1",["nareit_ffo","recurring_capex","common_dividends","net_debt","ebitda_re","interest_expense","occupancy_ratio","same_store_noi_growth"]],utility:["D18-F10-A04","ferc-regulated-electric-teaching-v1",["allowed_roe","earned_roe","funds_from_operations","total_debt","debt_to_capital","ebit","interest_expense","capital_expenditure"]],"early-stage":["D18-F10-A05","early-stage-liquidity-teaching-v1",["unrestricted_cash","liquid_investments","monthly_net_cash_flows","near_term_obligations"]],cyclical:["D18-F10-A06","cyclical-midcycle-teaching-v1",["realized_price_history","unit_cost_history","volume_history","free_cash_flow_history","net_debt"]],"holding-company":["D18-F10-A07","holding-company-lookthrough-teaching-v1",["holdings","parent_cash","parent_debt","parent_interest_expense"]]};
function coverageDecision(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
requireFramework(data,"coverage-router-teaching-v1");const sector=textValue(data,"sector"),candidate=textValue(data,"candidate_framework"),asOf=dateValue(data.as_of,"as_of"),minimum=numberValue(data,"minimum_coverage"),maxAge=Math.trunc(positive(data,"max_age_days"));if(!(minimum>0&&minimum<=1))throw new RangeError("minimum_coverage must be in (0, 1]");if(!ROUTES[sector])return{state:"abstain",method:"sector-coverage-router-v1",selected_model:null,coverage_ratio:0,available_fields:[],missing_fields:[],stale_fields:[],future_fields:[],reasons:["unsupported-sector"],reason:"unsupported-sector"};
const [model,expected,required]=ROUTES[sector];if(candidate!==expected)return{state:"abstain",method:"sector-coverage-router-v1",selected_model:null,coverage_ratio:0,available_fields:[],missing_fields:[...required],stale_fields:[],future_fields:[],reasons:["framework-mismatch"],reason:"framework-mismatch"};const facts=data.facts;if(!Array.isArray(facts))throw new TypeError("facts must be an array");const ledger:Record<string,any>={};for(const raw of facts){if(!raw||typeof raw!=="object"||Array.isArray(raw))throw new TypeError("each fact must be an object");const name=textValue(raw,"name");if(ledger[name])throw new RangeError("fact names must be unique");if(typeof raw.value_present!=="boolean")throw new TypeError("value_present must be boolean");ledger[name]=raw;}
const available:string[]=[],missing:string[]=[],stale:string[]=[],future:string[]=[];for(const name of required){const fact=ledger[name];if(!fact||!fact.value_present){missing.push(name);continue;}const knowledge=dateValue(fact.knowledge_date,`${name}.knowledge_date`),periodEnd=dateValue(fact.period_end,`${name}.period_end`);if(knowledge.getTime()>asOf.getTime())future.push(name);else if((asOf.getTime()-periodEnd.getTime())/86400000>maxAge)stale.push(name);else available.push(name);}const coverage=available.length/required.length,reasons:string[]=[];if(future.length)reasons.push("future-evidence");if(stale.length)reasons.push("stale-evidence");if(missing.length)reasons.push("missing-required-fields");let state:string,selected:string|null;if(future.length){state="abstain";selected=null;}else if(coverage===1){state="supported";selected=model;}else if(coverage>=minimum){state="partial-review";selected=model;}else{state="abstain";selected=null;reasons.push("coverage-below-minimum");}if(!reasons.length)reasons.push("complete-current-coverage");return{state,method:"sector-coverage-router-v1",selected_model:selected,coverage_ratio:coverage,available_fields:available,missing_fields:missing,stale_fields:stale,future_fields:future,required_field_count:required.length,reasons,reason:reasons[0]};
}
export function calculate(topicId:string,data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
if(!data||typeof data!=="object"||Array.isArray(data))throw new TypeError("input must be an object");
const functions:Record<string,(value:RecordValue)=>RecordValue>={"D18-F10-A01":bankScore,"D18-F10-A02":insuranceScore,"D18-F10-A03":reitScore,"D18-F10-A04":utilityScore,"D18-F10-A05":earlyStageScore,"D18-F10-A06":cyclicalScore,"D18-F10-A07":holdingCompanyScore,"D18-F10-A08":calibrateWeights,"D18-F10-A09":coverageDecision};
if(!functions[topicId])throw new RangeError(`unsupported topic ID: ${topicId}`);return functions[topicId](data);
}
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