Library/Fundamental Analysis and Valuation/Sector-Specific Equity Scoring/Utility Fundamental Score

D18-F10-A04 / Complete engineering topic

Utility Fundamental Score

Create a regulated-utility score that connects accounting evidence to ratemaking economics without treating an allowed return as guaranteed earnings.

Utility Fundamental Score routes sector evidence into an auditable component and decision ledgerD18 / D18-F10

Create a regulated-utility score that connects accounting evidence to ratemaking economics without treating an allowed return as guaranteed earnings.

Utility Fundamental Score route, calculation, and decision map

The decision this tutorial makes visible

Utilities can carry large debt and capital programs because regulated assets, rate cases, and recovery timing shape their economics; a generic industrial score misses those links.

The precise question is: How can a regulated electric utility's earned return, cash leverage, capital structure, coverage, capex funding, regulatory lag, and rate-base growth be reviewed together?

A practitioner needs to know what the diagnostic does and does not justify. A builder needs a contract that can be reproduced from the same point-in-time inputs in Python, TypeScript, a visual, and a browser lab.

Intuition before notation

The model asks whether the utility is earning near its authorized return while financing a long-lived capital program without losing balance-sheet resilience.

The result depends on the declared algorithm scope, input clocks, units, equality and rounding policies, and unsupported-state treatment. Change one of those and the output represents a different decision even when its field name is unchanged.

Scope and nearby methods

The selected U.S.-oriented teaching contract covers a regulated electric utility and keeps allowed-versus-earned ROE, FFO/debt, debt/capital, interest cover, CFO/capex, lag, and rate-base growth visible.

VariantDefinitionBest useMain limitation
Selected regulated electricReturn, funding, lag and rate-base panelVertically integrated or wires utility reviewNot a universal global model
Merchant generatorCommodity, dispatch and hedging modelUnregulated generationAllowed ROE and rate base are poor anchors
Water or gas utilitySector-specific rate-base modelOther regulated networksBands require re-estimation

What is sourced, selected, synthetic, and derived

RoleMaterial claimEvidenceBoundary
sourced factFERC-jurisdictional utilities use specialized accounts and regulatory forms.FERC accounting and forms portalsState and international regimes can differ.
package choiceThe seven dimensions and centered bands are teaching choices.Repository contractFERC does not publish this composite.
synthetic inputThe canonical rate case and cash-flow figures are fabricated.canonical-input.jsonThey are not a named utility.
derived outputThe score follows the frozen component ledger.Calculation ledgerIt does not predict rate-case outcomes.

The authoritative sources support only the exact facts named in the claim ledger. They do not certify the synthetic numbers in this tutorial. The repository fixture is deliberately invented for auditability, and the displayed output is author-derived under the selected implementation choice.

Formula, symbols, and numerical policy

Plain text
U = Σwᵢsᵢ; earned-return component = centered_band(earned ROE − allowed ROE).
SymbolMeaningUnitPolicy
ΔROEearned less allowed ROEdecimal ratioAlign jurisdiction, utility and period
FFO/Dfunds from operations / debtdecimal ratioReconcile FFO definition
CFO/Xoperating cash flow / capexmultipleSame period and perimeter
  • Use IEEE-754 binary64 arithmetic without intermediate rounding.
  • Treat percentages as decimal fractions and label percentage-point changes explicitly.
  • Clamp only declared component transforms to [0,100]; never clamp raw regulatory or accounting inputs silently.
  • Round only for presentation after the full component, penalty, and coverage ledger is stored.

Read the formula in the same order as the algorithm. Validate identity, ordering, units, and supported state first. Apply the selected equality and window rules second. Calculate with unrounded numeric values. Round only at the declared presentation boundary, and preserve null as a diagnostic rather than coercing it to zero.

Build the algorithm

  1. Separate regulated electric operations from merchant or other businesses.
  2. Align allowed and earned ROE to one jurisdiction and period.
  3. Calculate cash-debt, capital, coverage, and capex-funding diagnostics.
  4. Score lag and rate-base growth with declared package bands.
  5. Publish the score beside the regulatory scope and component ledger.

Production-minded operational checklist

  1. Resolve sector and framework before calculating.
  2. Freeze scoring and knowledge-cutoff timestamps.
  3. Reconcile each input to its filing, regulator, provider, and reporting perimeter.
  4. Inspect component scores, penalties, and coverage before the headline.
  5. Retain abstention and unsupported-scope reasons for the integrated router.

The checklist is intentionally strict: an explicit rejection is safer than a plausible output built from stale, malformed, or unsupported state.

Worked synthetic example

The canonical fixture is synthetic teaching data, not an observed control event, customer order, or broker execution. Its primary author-derived output, fundamental_score, is 67.564016117901. The complete input and output are in datasets/canonical-input.json and datasets/expected-output.json.

The fixture earns 9.1% against a 9.5% allowed ROE, funds part of capex internally, and carries a defined eight-month lag. Each channel enters through its own component before weighting.

Counterfactual checkpoint

Extend regulatory lag. Hold all financial values fixed and increase regulatory lag from 8 toward 18 months. The output changes because Only the lag component weakens, demonstrating why regulatory timing is not another leverage ratio.

The structured result retains state and diagnostics in addition to the primary number. That makes the calculation independently reviewable and prevents a partial, null, rejected, or venue-bounded outcome from being mistaken for an unqualified value.

Boundary and counterexample workbook

The playground computes every scenario at 61 deterministic parameter states. The table uses the declared focus step and states whether that focus reproduces the canonical fixture. The full state ledger and compressed transition segments are in datasets/scenario-results.json.

ScenarioReview focusPurposeStatePrimary outputDiagnosticDecision segments
Canonical driver sweepStep 30 · canonical fixtureMove one primary causal driver through the canonical midpoint.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 67.6mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands1
Adverse operating stressStep 30 · comparison focusApply a controlled operating or earnings stress while retaining the framework.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 66.3mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands1
Balance-sheet resilienceStep 30 · comparison focusVary a funding, leverage, capital, or liquidity channel.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 68.1mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands2
Boundary crossingStep 30 · comparison focusCross a declared review boundary and inspect equality behavior.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 64.2mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands1
Evidence-quality stressStep 30 · comparison focusChange evidence usability or freshness without hiding the diagnostic.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 68.0mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands2
Concentration or mixStep 30 · canonical fixtureVary concentration, mix, or component balance.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 67.6mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands1
Recovery pathStep 30 · comparison focusTrace a recovery from an adverse state toward a resilient state.mixed-review-bandfundamental score 68.0mixed-review-band · ferc-tagged-package-bands1

These rows are not backtest observations. They are controlled counterexamples that expose how one driver changes the state, output, or reason code while the rest of the contract stays fixed.

Visualize the boundary

Utility Fundamental Score annotated teaching map

Open this SVG at full size, or use the guided playground to compare the seven topic-specific canonical, boundary, policy, and failure scenarios.

The Mermaid flow answers where the selected calculation sits in the processing sequence. The SVG keeps the formula, output, decision boundary, and invariant visible together. The lab lets the reader step through the same structured states without changing the underlying definition.

Implementation walkthrough

The Python and TypeScript references begin with the same validation contract, reject malformed and unsupported state before calculation, preserve declared ordering and rounding policies, and return structured diagnostics rather than one context-free number.

The main implementation branches are:

  • Merchant or nonregulated operations dominate — Reroute, because Allowed return and regulatory lag no longer explain the economics.
  • Allowed and earned ROE scopes differ — Abstain from the earned-return component, because The gap would be dimensionally valid but economically false.
  • FERC/accounting definitions reconcile — Publish score with regulatory and funding ledgers, because Users can inspect the causal channels.

Neither reference silently fetches data, mutates caller-owned inputs outside the declared engine behavior, guesses hidden state, or substitutes a provider default. Shared JSON fixtures make value, null, state, and reason-code drift visible across languages.

Testing and validation

Definition tests compare every canonical field, reject malformed state, and exercise the material boundary. Family validation recomputes every playground state from the reference function. Independent arithmetic is recorded beside the fixture rather than inferred only from implementation output.

The audit must preserve these invariants:

  • framework and policy version
  • point-in-time normalized input ledger
  • component transform thresholds and scores
  • weight vector and penalties
  • coverage, state, reason, and final output

Passing the suite proves the selected package contract and Python/TypeScript parity; it does not prove empirical usefulness for a live issuer universe.

Failure modes and misuse

  • The 0-100 teaching bands and default weights are package choices, not regulations, ratings, or market standards.
  • Definition fidelity and code parity do not establish predictive validity, calibration, causality, fair value, or investment performance.
  • Accounting frameworks, prudential regimes, business mixes, and reporting perimeters can make apparently identical ratios incomparable.
  • A complete component ledger can still omit material qualitative, governance, legal, catastrophe, operational, or market risks.

Debugging order

When a result looks surprising, inspect the state in this order:

  1. Confirm framework and reporting perimeter
  2. Check units and knowledge dates
  3. Recalculate raw intermediates
  4. Inspect bounded component transforms
  5. Reconcile weights, penalties, coverage, and state

Evidence and historical boundary

Historical decision: not useful. A named Utility Fundamental Score case would introduce issuer identity, filing and regulator scope, restatement, data-license, and scoring-policy questions without teaching the deterministic mechanism better than a controlled synthetic record.

The primary sources are FERC accounting, FERC electric forms, SEC non-GAAP C&DIs. They support the source roles listed in the research ledger, not a redistributable historical observation, a private participant decision, production conformance certification, execution-quality result, profitability claim, or prediction claim.

Summary and next topic

You can now compute and audit Utility Fundamental Score before passing its versioned output to the integrated scoring router. The learning flow is: REIT Fundamental Score → Utility Fundamental Score → Early-Stage Liquidity and Runway Score. Carry the result forward only with its scope, clock, state, and evidence label.

Verified model contract — Level 1

  • Selected calculation: U = Σwᵢsᵢ; earned-return component = centered_band(earned ROE − allowed ROE).
  • Reproducibility boundary: the canonical fixture is synthetic; the stored input, intermediate ledger, output, and cross-language implementations define the executable example.
  • Interpretation ceiling: Definition fidelity and code parity do not establish predictive validity, calibration, causality, fair value, or investment performance.

Level 2 learning layer

How to choose this model or a nearby method

MethodBest useAssumption that must holdMain limitation
Selected regulated electricVertically integrated or wires utility reviewRegulated perimeter is isolatedNot a universal global model
Merchant generatorUnregulated generationMarket exposure dominatesAllowed ROE and rate base are poor anchors
Water or gas utilityOther regulated networksDifferent operations and regulatorsBands require re-estimation

The selected package is appropriate only when its framework tag, reporting perimeter, unit policy, and point-in-time evidence contract are all satisfied. If a stop condition in the topic decision matrix fires, use the named review, reroute, or abstention state instead of forcing a score.

Compact glossary

SymbolMeaningUnitPolicy
ΔROEearned less allowed ROEdecimal ratioAlign jurisdiction, utility and period
FFO/Dfunds from operations / debtdecimal ratioReconcile FFO definition
CFO/Xoperating cash flow / capexmultipleSame period and perimeter

Visual asset map

AssetLearning jobStatus
Article heroSee route → normalize → calculate → decide at a glanceReady
System mapConnect formula, boundary, invariant, counterfactual, and outputReady
Model anatomyFollow the four-stage calculation pipelineReady
Component ledgerReconstruct the headline from named dimensionsReady
Decision boundarySeparate a computable result from a permissible interpretationReady
Evidence clockPrevent point-in-time leakageReady
Mermaid flowInspect the text-native algorithm flowReady
Guided playgroundPredict, reveal, sweep 427 calculations, and explain state changesReady

Related concepts and continuation

Deep visual atlas

Sector model anatomy

Canonical component ledger

Decision boundary and interpretation ceiling

Point-in-time evidence clock

The teaching sequence is route → normalize → calculate → decide. Use the component ledger to reconstruct the headline, the boundary map to stop unsupported interpretation, and the evidence clock to block hindsight.

Guided playground protocol

  1. Orient: identify the framework, active driver, and invariant.
  2. Predict: commit to decrease, stay flat, or increase before revealing the adjacent numeric result.
  3. Experiment: sweep all 61 computed states in each of seven scenarios and inspect discontinuities.
  4. Explain: reconcile earned-versus-allowed ROE gap and capex-funding ratio to the headline and apply this boundary: A merchant-heavy or mismatched rate-case perimeter must reroute.

Utility Fundamental Score calculation flow

This flow identifies the selected calculation stages and the structured output.

Rendering system map…

Takeaway: Utility scoring must join ratemaking timing to—not substitute for—cash and leverage evidence.

ReferencesPrimary sources and evidence notes

Expand the source trail, evidence role, and limitations behind the engineering choices.

S1 — Accounting Matters

  • Organization or authors: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
  • Source type: Official regulatory accounting portal
  • Publication or effective date: Accessed 2026-08-08
  • Version: Current web portal
  • URL or DOI: https://www.ferc.gov/accounting-matters-0
  • Accessed: 2026-08-09
  • Jurisdiction: U.S. FERC-jurisdictional utilities
  • Supports: Jurisdictional utilities maintain books under FERC Uniform Systems of Accounts and report through specified forms.
  • Limitations: State-regulated utilities and non-U.S. regimes can use different accounts and ratemaking rules.

S2 — Electric Industry Forms

  • Organization or authors: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
  • Source type: Official reporting portal
  • Publication or effective date: Accessed 2026-08-08
  • Version: Current forms page
  • URL or DOI: https://www.ferc.gov/general-information-0/electric-industry-forms
  • Accessed: 2026-08-09
  • Jurisdiction: U.S. FERC-jurisdictional electric utilities
  • Supports: FERC Form 1 and 1-F are financial and operating reports used for regulation, oversight, and audits.
  • Limitations: Form applicability and filing status do not validate this package's score bands.

S3 — Non-GAAP Financial Measures Compliance and Disclosure Interpretations

  • Organization or authors: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
  • Source type: Official staff guidance
  • Publication or effective date: Updated 2022; accessed 2026-08-08
  • Version: Current web version
  • URL or DOI: https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/staff-guidance/corporation-finance-interpretations/non-gaap-financial-measures
  • Accessed: 2026-08-09
  • Jurisdiction: United States SEC reporting
  • Supports: Adjusted measures can be misleading when definitions, recurring adjustments, prominence, or reconciliation are inadequate.
  • Limitations: Does not standardize analyst AFFO, utility FFO, or normalized commodity earnings.

Evidence boundary

Sources define sector measures, disclosure regimes, and methodological cautions. They do not endorse the repository's synthetic fixtures, weights, score bands, or investment use.

sector-scoring.ts
/** Deterministic TypeScript reference for D18-F10 sector-specific scoring. */

export type RecordValue = Record<string, any>;

const numberValue = (data: RecordValue, name: string): number => {
  const value = data[name];
  if (typeof value !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new TypeError(`${name} must be a finite number`);
  return value;
};
const nonnegative = (data: RecordValue, name: string): number => {
  const value = numberValue(data, name); if (value < 0) throw new RangeError(`${name} must be nonnegative`); return value;
};
const positive = (data: RecordValue, name: string): number => {
  const value = numberValue(data, name); if (value <= 0) throw new RangeError(`${name} must be positive`); return value;
};
const textValue = (data: RecordValue, name: string): string => {
  const value = data[name]; if (typeof value !== "string" || !value.trim()) throw new TypeError(`${name} must be a nonempty string`); return value.trim();
};
const dateValue = (value: unknown, name: string): Date => {
  if (typeof value !== "string" || !/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(value)) throw new TypeError(`${name} must be YYYY-MM-DD`);
  const result = new Date(`${value}T00:00:00Z`); if (!Number.isFinite(result.getTime()) || result.toISOString().slice(0, 10) !== value) throw new RangeError(`${name} must be YYYY-MM-DD`); return result;
};
const requireFramework = (data: RecordValue, expected: string): void => { if (textValue(data, "framework") !== expected) throw new RangeError(`framework must be ${expected}`); };
const clamp = (value: number, low = 0, high = 100): number => Math.min(high, Math.max(low, value));
const higher = (value: number, weak: number, strong: number): number => { if (strong <= weak) throw new RangeError("strong threshold must exceed weak threshold"); return clamp(100 * (value - weak) / (strong - weak)); };
const lower = (value: number, strong: number, weak: number): number => { if (weak <= strong) throw new RangeError("weak threshold must exceed strong threshold"); return clamp(100 * (weak - value) / (weak - strong)); };
const centered = (value: number, center: number, fullDistance: number, zeroDistance: number): number => {
  if (zeroDistance <= fullDistance) throw new RangeError("zero-score distance must exceed full-score distance");
  return clamp(100 * (zeroDistance - Math.abs(value - center)) / (zeroDistance - fullDistance));
};
const weightsFor = (data: RecordValue, names: string[]): Record<string, number> => {
  const raw = data.weights;
  if (!raw || typeof raw !== "object" || Array.isArray(raw) || Object.keys(raw).sort().join("|") !== [...names].sort().join("|")) throw new RangeError("weights must contain exactly the declared component names");
  const result = Object.fromEntries(names.map(name => [name, nonnegative(raw, name)]));
  const total = Object.values(result).reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0);
  if (Math.abs(total - 1) > 1e-9) throw new RangeError("weights must sum to 1");
  return result;
};
const weightedScore = (components: Record<string, number>, weights: Record<string, number>): number => Object.entries(components).reduce((sum, [name, value]) => sum + value * weights[name], 0);
const scoreState = (score: number): string => score >= 75 ? "strong-review-band" : score >= 50 ? "mixed-review-band" : "weak-review-band";

function bankScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
  requireFramework(data, "basel-iii-teaching-v1");
  const names = ["capital", "leverage", "short_liquidity", "stable_funding", "asset_quality", "coverage", "margin", "efficiency"];
  const weights = weightsFor(data, names);
  const values = {cet1_ratio: nonnegative(data,"cet1_ratio"), leverage_ratio: nonnegative(data,"leverage_ratio"), lcr: nonnegative(data,"lcr"), nsfr: nonnegative(data,"nsfr"), npl_ratio: nonnegative(data,"npl_ratio"), provision_coverage_ratio: nonnegative(data,"provision_coverage_ratio"), net_interest_margin: numberValue(data,"net_interest_margin"), cost_income_ratio: nonnegative(data,"cost_income_ratio")};
  const components = {capital:higher(values.cet1_ratio,.07,.14), leverage:higher(values.leverage_ratio,.03,.06), short_liquidity:higher(values.lcr,1,1.4), stable_funding:higher(values.nsfr,1,1.3), asset_quality:lower(values.npl_ratio,.02,.08), coverage:higher(values.provision_coverage_ratio,.6,1.2), margin:higher(values.net_interest_margin,.01,.04), efficiency:lower(values.cost_income_ratio,.4,.7)};
  const minimums = data.minimums; if (!minimums || typeof minimums !== "object" || Array.isArray(minimums)) throw new TypeError("minimums must be an object");
  const checks: Record<string,number> = {cet1_ratio:nonnegative(minimums,"cet1_ratio"), leverage_ratio:nonnegative(minimums,"leverage_ratio"), lcr:nonnegative(minimums,"lcr"), nsfr:nonnegative(minimums,"nsfr")};
  const breaches = Object.entries(checks).filter(([name, minimum]) => values[name as keyof typeof values] < minimum).map(([name])=>name);
  const base = weightedScore(components, weights), penalty = 12.5 * breaches.length, score = clamp(base - penalty);
  return {state:breaches.length?"prudential-floor-review":scoreState(score),method:"bank-sector-score-v1",component_scores:components,weights,base_score:base,floor_breaches:breaches,penalty,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"package-bands-with-declared-prudential-minimums"};
}

function insuranceScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
  requireFramework(data,"solvency-ii-nonlife-teaching-v1");
  const names=["solvency","minimum_capital","underwriting","reserve_quality","own_fund_quality","concentration","profitability"], weights=weightsFor(data,names);
  const values={scr_coverage_ratio:nonnegative(data,"scr_coverage_ratio"),mcr_coverage_ratio:nonnegative(data,"mcr_coverage_ratio"),combined_ratio:nonnegative(data,"combined_ratio"),adverse_reserve_development_ratio:numberValue(data,"adverse_reserve_development_ratio"),tier1_own_funds_share:nonnegative(data,"tier1_own_funds_share"),investment_concentration_ratio:nonnegative(data,"investment_concentration_ratio"),return_on_equity:numberValue(data,"return_on_equity")};
  const components={solvency:higher(values.scr_coverage_ratio,1,2),minimum_capital:higher(values.mcr_coverage_ratio,1,3),underwriting:lower(values.combined_ratio,.88,1.08),reserve_quality:lower(values.adverse_reserve_development_ratio,-.02,.08),own_fund_quality:higher(values.tier1_own_funds_share,.5,.9),concentration:lower(values.investment_concentration_ratio,.1,.4),profitability:higher(values.return_on_equity,.02,.15)};
  const breaches=["scr_coverage_ratio","mcr_coverage_ratio"].filter(name=>values[name as keyof typeof values]<1),base=weightedScore(components,weights),penalty=20*breaches.length,score=clamp(base-penalty);
  return {state:breaches.length?"capital-requirement-review":scoreState(score),method:"insurance-sector-score-v1",component_scores:components,weights,base_score:base,floor_breaches:breaches,penalty,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"solvency-ii-tagged-nonlife-package-bands"};
}

function reitScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
  requireFramework(data,"nareit-equity-reit-teaching-v1");
  const names=["distribution","leverage","coverage","occupancy","same_store_growth","liquidity"],weights=weightsFor(data,names);
  const ffo=numberValue(data,"nareit_ffo"),capex=nonnegative(data,"recurring_capex"),rent=numberValue(data,"straight_line_rent_adjustment"),dividends=positive(data,"common_dividends"),ebitda=positive(data,"ebitda_re"),interest=positive(data,"interest_expense"),nearDebt=positive(data,"near_term_debt_maturities");
  const affo=ffo-capex-rent,distribution=affo/dividends,leverage=nonnegative(data,"net_debt")/ebitda,interestCoverage=ebitda/interest,liquidity=nonnegative(data,"available_liquidity")/nearDebt;
  const components={distribution:higher(distribution,.8,1.4),leverage:lower(leverage,3.5,8),coverage:higher(interestCoverage,1.5,5),occupancy:higher(nonnegative(data,"occupancy_ratio"),.8,.97),same_store_growth:higher(numberValue(data,"same_store_noi_growth"),-.05,.08),liquidity:higher(liquidity,.75,2)};
  const score=weightedScore(components,weights);
  return {state:affo<=0?"affo-proxy-deficit-review":scoreState(score),method:"reit-sector-score-v1",nareit_ffo:ffo,affo_proxy:affo,distribution_coverage:distribution,net_debt_to_ebitda_re:leverage,interest_coverage:interestCoverage,liquidity_coverage:liquidity,component_scores:components,weights,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"nareit-ffo-plus-explicit-package-affo-proxy"};
}

function utilityScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
  requireFramework(data,"ferc-regulated-electric-teaching-v1");
  const names=["earned_return","cash_debt","capital_structure","interest_coverage","capex_funding","regulatory_lag","rate_base_growth"],weights=weightsFor(data,names);
  const allowed=positive(data,"allowed_roe"),earned=numberValue(data,"earned_roe"),debt=positive(data,"total_debt"),ffoDebt=numberValue(data,"funds_from_operations")/debt,interestCoverage=numberValue(data,"ebit")/positive(data,"interest_expense"),capexFunding=numberValue(data,"cash_from_operations")/positive(data,"capital_expenditure");
  const components={earned_return:centered(earned-allowed,0,.005,.04),cash_debt:higher(ffoDebt,.08,.22),capital_structure:lower(nonnegative(data,"debt_to_capital"),.4,.65),interest_coverage:higher(interestCoverage,1.5,5),capex_funding:higher(capexFunding,.4,1),regulatory_lag:lower(nonnegative(data,"regulatory_lag_months"),3,18),rate_base_growth:centered(numberValue(data,"rate_base_growth"),.05,.01,.08)};
  const score=weightedScore(components,weights);
  return {state:scoreState(score),method:"utility-sector-score-v1",earned_allowed_roe_gap:earned-allowed,ffo_to_debt:ffoDebt,interest_coverage:interestCoverage,capex_funding_ratio:capexFunding,component_scores:components,weights,fundamental_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"ferc-tagged-package-bands"};
}

function earlyStageScore(data: RecordValue): RecordValue {
  requireFramework(data,"early-stage-liquidity-teaching-v1");
  const names=["runway","burn_trend","obligation_cover","revenue_cover"],weights=weightsFor(data,names),cashFlows=data.monthly_net_cash_flows,revenues=data.monthly_revenue;
  if(!Array.isArray(cashFlows)||cashFlows.length<6)throw new RangeError("monthly_net_cash_flows must contain at least 6 observations");
  if(!Array.isArray(revenues)||revenues.length!==cashFlows.length)throw new RangeError("monthly_revenue must match cash-flow history");
  const flows=cashFlows.map((v:any)=>numberValue({v},"v")),revs=revenues.map((v:any)=>nonnegative({v},"v"));
  const unrestricted=nonnegative(data,"unrestricted_cash"),investments=nonnegative(data,"liquid_investments"),facility=nonnegative(data,"unconditionally_committed_facility"),obligations=nonnegative(data,"near_term_obligations"),minimumCash=nonnegative(data,"minimum_operating_cash");
  const available=unrestricted+investments+facility-obligations-minimumCash,latest=flows.slice(-6),burn=Math.max(0,-latest.reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/latest.length),prior=Math.max(0,-latest.slice(0,3).reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/3),current=Math.max(0,-latest.slice(3).reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/3),burnRatio=prior>0?current/prior:(current===0?0:2),gross=unrestricted+investments+facility,obligationCover=obligations>0?gross/obligations:10,latestRevenue=revs.slice(-3).reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/3,revenueCover=current>0?latestRevenue/current:10,runway=burn>0?available/burn:null;
  const components={runway:runway===null?100:higher(runway,6,24),burn_trend:lower(burnRatio,.75,1.25),obligation_cover:higher(obligationCover,.75,2),revenue_cover:higher(revenueCover,0,1)},score=weightedScore(components,weights);
  const state=available<0?"negative-available-liquidity":runway===null?"nonburning-observation":runway<12?"funding-window-under-12-months":scoreState(score);
  return {state,method:"early-stage-runway-score-v1",available_liquidity:available,monthly_burn:burn,prior_three_month_burn:prior,latest_three_month_burn:current,burn_ratio:burnRatio,runway_months:runway,obligation_coverage:obligationCover,revenue_to_burn:revenueCover,component_scores:components,weights,runway_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"historical-burn-sensitivity-not-management-forecast"};
}

const medianValue=(values:number[]):number=>{const sorted=[...values].sort((a,b)=>a-b),middle=Math.floor(sorted.length/2);return sorted.length%2?sorted[middle]:(sorted[middle-1]+sorted[middle])/2;};
function cyclicalScore(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
  requireFramework(data,"cyclical-midcycle-teaching-v1");
  const names=["normalized_margin","normalized_leverage","cash_consistency","cycle_balance"],weights=weightsFor(data,names),arrays:Record<string,number[]>={};
  for(const name of ["realized_price_history","unit_cost_history","volume_history","free_cash_flow_history"]){const raw=data[name];if(!Array.isArray(raw)||raw.length<7)throw new RangeError(`${name} must contain at least 7 observations`);arrays[name]=raw.map((v:any)=>numberValue({v},"v"));}
  if(new Set(Object.values(arrays).map(v=>v.length)).size!==1)throw new RangeError("cycle histories must have equal length");
  const prices=arrays.realized_price_history,costs=arrays.unit_cost_history,volumes=arrays.volume_history;if([...prices,...costs,...volumes].some(v=>v<=0))throw new RangeError("price, cost, and volume histories must be positive");
  const normalizedPrice=medianValue(prices),normalizedCost=medianValue(costs),normalizedVolume=medianValue(volumes),revenue=normalizedPrice*normalizedVolume,ebitda=(normalizedPrice-normalizedCost)*normalizedVolume-nonnegative(data,"fixed_costs"),margin=ebitda/revenue,netDebt=nonnegative(data,"net_debt"),leverage=ebitda>0?netDebt/ebitda:null,positiveFcf=arrays.free_cash_flow_history.filter(v=>v>0).length/arrays.free_cash_flow_history.length,currentPrice=positive(data,"current_realized_price"),percentile=prices.filter(v=>v<=currentPrice).length/prices.length;
  const components={normalized_margin:higher(margin,0,.3),normalized_leverage:leverage===null?0:lower(leverage,.5,4),cash_consistency:higher(positiveFcf,.3,.9),cycle_balance:centered(percentile,.5,.1,.5)},score=weightedScore(components,weights);
  return {state:ebitda<=0?"nonpositive-midcycle-ebitda-review":scoreState(score),method:"cyclical-midcycle-normalization-v1",normalized_price:normalizedPrice,normalized_unit_cost:normalizedCost,normalized_volume:normalizedVolume,normalized_revenue:revenue,normalized_ebitda:ebitda,normalized_margin:margin,normalized_net_leverage:leverage,positive_fcf_ratio:positiveFcf,cycle_percentile:percentile,component_scores:components,weights,normalized_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"point-in-time-median-cycle-window"};
}

function holdingCompanyScore(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
  requireFramework(data,"holding-company-lookthrough-teaching-v1");
  const names=["nav_buffer","lookthrough_leverage","parent_coverage","diversification","freshness","listed_coverage"],weights=weightsFor(data,names),holdings=data.holdings;
  if(!Array.isArray(holdings)||holdings.length<2)throw new RangeError("holdings must contain at least two records");
  const ids=new Set<string>(),rows=holdings.map((raw:any)=>{if(!raw||typeof raw!=="object"||Array.isArray(raw))throw new TypeError("each holding must be an object");const id=textValue(raw,"id");if(ids.has(id))throw new RangeError("holding IDs must be unique");ids.add(id);const ownership=numberValue(raw,"ownership_ratio");if(!(ownership>0&&ownership<=1))throw new RangeError("ownership_ratio must be in (0, 1]");if(typeof raw.listed!=="boolean"||typeof raw.stale!=="boolean")throw new TypeError("listed and stale must be booleans");return{id,ownership_ratio:ownership,attributable_equity_value:ownership*nonnegative(raw,"equity_value"),attributable_debt:ownership*nonnegative(raw,"debt"),attributable_dividends:ownership*nonnegative(raw,"dividends_to_parent"),listed:raw.listed,stale:raw.stale};});
  const parentCash=nonnegative(data,"parent_cash"),parentDebt=nonnegative(data,"parent_debt"),other=nonnegative(data,"other_parent_liabilities"),parentInterest=positive(data,"parent_interest_expense"),stake=rows.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_equity_value,0),gav=stake+parentCash;if(gav<=0)throw new RangeError("gross asset value must be positive");
  const nav=gav-parentDebt-other,attributableDebt=rows.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_debt,0),enterprise=stake+attributableDebt+parentCash,leverage=enterprise>0?(parentDebt+attributableDebt)/enterprise:1,parentCoverage=rows.reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_dividends,0)/parentInterest,shares=stake>0?rows.map(r=>r.attributable_equity_value/stake):[1],concentration=shares.reduce((s,v)=>s+v*v,0),freshness=stake>0?rows.filter(r=>!r.stale).reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_equity_value,0)/stake:0,listed=stake>0?rows.filter(r=>r.listed).reduce((s,r)=>s+r.attributable_equity_value,0)/stake:0,navRatio=nav/gav;
  const components={nav_buffer:higher(navRatio,.2,.8),lookthrough_leverage:lower(leverage,.2,.65),parent_coverage:higher(parentCoverage,1,4),diversification:lower(concentration,.25,.7),freshness:higher(freshness,.6,1),listed_coverage:higher(listed,.3,1)},score=weightedScore(components,weights),marketCap=data.parent_market_cap===undefined?null:nonnegative(data,"parent_market_cap"),discount=marketCap===null||nav<=0?null:1-marketCap/nav;
  return {state:nav<=0?"nonpositive-nav-review":scoreState(score),method:"holding-company-lookthrough-score-v1",holding_ledger:rows,gross_asset_value:gav,net_asset_value:nav,attributable_subsidiary_debt:attributableDebt,lookthrough_leverage:leverage,parent_interest_coverage:parentCoverage,concentration_hhi:concentration,fresh_value_coverage:freshness,listed_value_coverage:listed,discount_to_nav:discount,component_scores:components,weights,look_through_score:score,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"attributable-stakes-with-parent-bridge"};
}

const sigmoid=(value:number):number=>value>=0?1/(1+Math.exp(-value)):Math.exp(value)/(1+Math.exp(value));
const projectSimplex=(values:number[]):number[]=>{const ordered=[...values].sort((a,b)=>b-a);let cumulative=0,rho=0;ordered.forEach((value,index)=>{cumulative+=value;if(value-(cumulative-1)/(index+1)>0)rho=index+1;});const theta=(ordered.slice(0,rho).reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0)-1)/rho,projected=values.map(v=>Math.max(v-theta,0)),total=projected.reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0);return projected.map(v=>v/total);};
const brier=(rows:number[][],labels:number[],weights:number[],intercept:number,slope:number):number=>rows.reduce((sum,row,index)=>{const score=row.reduce((s,v,j)=>s+weights[j]*v,0)/100,p=sigmoid(intercept+slope*(score-.5));return sum+(p-labels[index])**2;},0)/rows.length;
function calibrateWeights(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
  requireFramework(data,"sector-weight-calibration-teaching-v1");
  const names=data.component_names,rowsRaw=data.feature_rows,labelsRaw=data.labels,datesRaw=data.observation_dates;
  if(!Array.isArray(names)||names.length<2||new Set(names).size!==names.length||!names.every((n:any)=>typeof n==="string"&&n))throw new RangeError("component_names must be unique nonempty strings");
  if(!Array.isArray(rowsRaw)||rowsRaw.length<12)throw new RangeError("feature_rows must contain at least 12 observations");if(!Array.isArray(labelsRaw)||labelsRaw.length!==rowsRaw.length)throw new RangeError("labels must match feature_rows");if(!Array.isArray(datesRaw)||datesRaw.length!==rowsRaw.length)throw new RangeError("observation_dates must match feature_rows");
  const rows=rowsRaw.map((row:any)=>{if(!Array.isArray(row)||row.length!==names.length)throw new RangeError("each feature row must match component_names");const values=row.map((v:any)=>numberValue({v},"v"));if(values.some((v:number)=>v<0||v>100))throw new RangeError("feature scores must be within [0, 100]");return values;});
  const labels=labelsRaw.map((v:any)=>{if(v!==0&&v!==1)throw new RangeError("labels must be binary 0/1 integers");return v;});const dates=datesRaw.map((v:any)=>dateValue(v,"observation_dates"));if(dates.some((v:Date,i:number)=>i<dates.length-1&&v.getTime()>=dates[i+1].getTime()))throw new RangeError("observation_dates must be strictly increasing");
  const split=Math.trunc(numberValue(data,"train_end_index"));if(split<8||split>rows.length-4)throw new RangeError("train_end_index must leave at least 8 training and 4 validation rows");const baseMap=data.base_weights;if(!baseMap||typeof baseMap!=="object"||Array.isArray(baseMap)||Object.keys(baseMap).sort().join("|")!==[...names].sort().join("|"))throw new RangeError("base_weights must match component_names");const base=names.map((n:string)=>nonnegative(baseMap,n));if(Math.abs(base.reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)-1)>1e-9)throw new RangeError("base_weights must sum to 1");
  const learningRate=positive(data,"learning_rate"),ridge=nonnegative(data,"ridge_penalty"),slope=positive(data,"logit_slope"),iterations=Math.trunc(positive(data,"iterations"));if(iterations>5000)throw new RangeError("iterations must not exceed 5000");let weights=[...base],intercept=0;const trainRows=rows.slice(0,split),validationRows=rows.slice(split),trainLabels=labels.slice(0,split),validationLabels=labels.slice(split);
  for(let iteration=0;iteration<iterations;iteration++){const probabilities=trainRows.map((row:number[])=>sigmoid(intercept+slope*(row.reduce((s:number,v:number,j:number)=>s+weights[j]*v,0)/100-.5))),residuals=probabilities.map((p:number,i:number)=>p-trainLabels[i]),gradIntercept=residuals.reduce((a:number,b:number)=>a+b,0)/residuals.length,gradWeights=names.map((_:string,column:number)=>residuals.reduce((sum:number,residual:number,i:number)=>sum+residual*slope*trainRows[i][column]/100,0)/trainRows.length+ridge*(weights[column]-base[column]));intercept-=learningRate*gradIntercept;weights=projectSimplex(weights.map((v:number,i:number)=>v-learningRate*gradWeights[i]));}
  const baseTrain=brier(trainRows,trainLabels,base,0,slope),baseValidation=brier(validationRows,validationLabels,base,0,slope),candidateTrain=brier(trainRows,trainLabels,weights,intercept,slope),candidateValidation=brier(validationRows,validationLabels,weights,intercept,slope),improved=candidateValidation<=baseValidation,selected=improved?weights:base,selectedIntercept=improved?intercept:0,selectedValidation=improved?candidateValidation:baseValidation;
  return {state:improved?"calibrated-improved":"retain-base-weights",method:"nonnegative-simplex-logloss-v1",component_names:names,base_weights:Object.fromEntries(names.map((n:string,i:number)=>[n,base[i]])),candidate_weights:Object.fromEntries(names.map((n:string,i:number)=>[n,weights[i]])),selected_weights:Object.fromEntries(names.map((n:string,i:number)=>[n,selected[i]])),candidate_intercept:intercept,selected_intercept:selectedIntercept,base_train_brier:baseTrain,base_validation_brier:baseValidation,candidate_train_brier:candidateTrain,candidate_validation_brier:candidateValidation,selected_validation_brier:selectedValidation,weight_shift_l1:weights.reduce((s:number,v:number,i:number)=>s+Math.abs(v-base[i]),0),train_rows:trainRows.length,validation_rows:validationRows.length,coverage_ratio:1,reason:"temporal-holdout-governs-selection"};
}

const ROUTES:Record<string,[string,string,string[]]>={bank:["D18-F10-A01","basel-iii-teaching-v1",["cet1_ratio","leverage_ratio","lcr","nsfr","npl_ratio","provision_coverage_ratio","net_interest_margin","cost_income_ratio"]],insurance:["D18-F10-A02","solvency-ii-nonlife-teaching-v1",["scr_coverage_ratio","mcr_coverage_ratio","combined_ratio","adverse_reserve_development_ratio","tier1_own_funds_share","investment_concentration_ratio","return_on_equity"]],reit:["D18-F10-A03","nareit-equity-reit-teaching-v1",["nareit_ffo","recurring_capex","common_dividends","net_debt","ebitda_re","interest_expense","occupancy_ratio","same_store_noi_growth"]],utility:["D18-F10-A04","ferc-regulated-electric-teaching-v1",["allowed_roe","earned_roe","funds_from_operations","total_debt","debt_to_capital","ebit","interest_expense","capital_expenditure"]],"early-stage":["D18-F10-A05","early-stage-liquidity-teaching-v1",["unrestricted_cash","liquid_investments","monthly_net_cash_flows","near_term_obligations"]],cyclical:["D18-F10-A06","cyclical-midcycle-teaching-v1",["realized_price_history","unit_cost_history","volume_history","free_cash_flow_history","net_debt"]],"holding-company":["D18-F10-A07","holding-company-lookthrough-teaching-v1",["holdings","parent_cash","parent_debt","parent_interest_expense"]]};
function coverageDecision(data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
  requireFramework(data,"coverage-router-teaching-v1");const sector=textValue(data,"sector"),candidate=textValue(data,"candidate_framework"),asOf=dateValue(data.as_of,"as_of"),minimum=numberValue(data,"minimum_coverage"),maxAge=Math.trunc(positive(data,"max_age_days"));if(!(minimum>0&&minimum<=1))throw new RangeError("minimum_coverage must be in (0, 1]");if(!ROUTES[sector])return{state:"abstain",method:"sector-coverage-router-v1",selected_model:null,coverage_ratio:0,available_fields:[],missing_fields:[],stale_fields:[],future_fields:[],reasons:["unsupported-sector"],reason:"unsupported-sector"};
  const [model,expected,required]=ROUTES[sector];if(candidate!==expected)return{state:"abstain",method:"sector-coverage-router-v1",selected_model:null,coverage_ratio:0,available_fields:[],missing_fields:[...required],stale_fields:[],future_fields:[],reasons:["framework-mismatch"],reason:"framework-mismatch"};const facts=data.facts;if(!Array.isArray(facts))throw new TypeError("facts must be an array");const ledger:Record<string,any>={};for(const raw of facts){if(!raw||typeof raw!=="object"||Array.isArray(raw))throw new TypeError("each fact must be an object");const name=textValue(raw,"name");if(ledger[name])throw new RangeError("fact names must be unique");if(typeof raw.value_present!=="boolean")throw new TypeError("value_present must be boolean");ledger[name]=raw;}
  const available:string[]=[],missing:string[]=[],stale:string[]=[],future:string[]=[];for(const name of required){const fact=ledger[name];if(!fact||!fact.value_present){missing.push(name);continue;}const knowledge=dateValue(fact.knowledge_date,`${name}.knowledge_date`),periodEnd=dateValue(fact.period_end,`${name}.period_end`);if(knowledge.getTime()>asOf.getTime())future.push(name);else if((asOf.getTime()-periodEnd.getTime())/86400000>maxAge)stale.push(name);else available.push(name);}const coverage=available.length/required.length,reasons:string[]=[];if(future.length)reasons.push("future-evidence");if(stale.length)reasons.push("stale-evidence");if(missing.length)reasons.push("missing-required-fields");let state:string,selected:string|null;if(future.length){state="abstain";selected=null;}else if(coverage===1){state="supported";selected=model;}else if(coverage>=minimum){state="partial-review";selected=model;}else{state="abstain";selected=null;reasons.push("coverage-below-minimum");}if(!reasons.length)reasons.push("complete-current-coverage");return{state,method:"sector-coverage-router-v1",selected_model:selected,coverage_ratio:coverage,available_fields:available,missing_fields:missing,stale_fields:stale,future_fields:future,required_field_count:required.length,reasons,reason:reasons[0]};
}

export function calculate(topicId:string,data:RecordValue):RecordValue{
  if(!data||typeof data!=="object"||Array.isArray(data))throw new TypeError("input must be an object");
  const functions:Record<string,(value:RecordValue)=>RecordValue>={"D18-F10-A01":bankScore,"D18-F10-A02":insuranceScore,"D18-F10-A03":reitScore,"D18-F10-A04":utilityScore,"D18-F10-A05":earlyStageScore,"D18-F10-A06":cyclicalScore,"D18-F10-A07":holdingCompanyScore,"D18-F10-A08":calibrateWeights,"D18-F10-A09":coverageDecision};
  if(!functions[topicId])throw new RangeError(`unsupported topic ID: ${topicId}`);return functions[topicId](data);
}
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