D21-F01-A06 · four-stage decision lab · synthetic teaching data

Campbell-Hilscher-Szilagyi Distress Probability

Reproduce the published score contribution by contribution while preserving the paper's variable definitions, lag, failure label, sample boundary, and recalibration warning.

Question: How is the published 12-month-lag CHS failure score assembled from profitability, leverage, returns, volatility, size, liquidity, valuation, and price variables?

Stage 1 · orient

Choose the analytical question before touching the number

Decision boundary

Invariant:

Stage 2 · predict

Commit to a direction before revealing the challenge

Your prediction
Stage 3 · experiment

Move one declared driver; keep the scenario contract fixed

Complete 61-state output series and evidence trace

Scenario result traceAll independently calculated states with the selected state marked.

Stage 4 · explain

Compare the anchor and candidate before interpreting

Anchor result
Candidate result
ComponentAnchorCandidateWhat changed?

Misconception check:

Inspect the structured input and output

Input

Output


Scenario evidence index
The lab surfaces curated stops for instruction while preserving all seven scenarios × 61 independently calculated states for audit.
ScenarioDriverQuestionRangeDecision segments