[
  {
    "name": "Canonical driver",
    "description": "Synthetic canonical driver sweep; only declared fields change while the topic contract remains fixed.",
    "canonical_step": 30,
    "summary": {
      "focus_step": 30,
      "focus_kind": "canonical-fixture",
      "canonical_output_match": true,
      "state_counts": {
        "current-below-long-run": 13,
        "current-above-long-run": 48
      },
      "value_min": 0.010949154345,
      "value_max": 0.015413440059,
      "segments": [
        {
          "start_step": 0,
          "end_step": 12,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "1.095%",
          "end_value_label": "1.184%"
        },
        {
          "start_step": 13,
          "end_step": 60,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "1.195%",
          "end_value_label": "1.541%"
        }
      ]
    },
    "states": [
      {
        "step": 0,
        "value": 0.010949154345,
        "value_label": "1.095%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.095%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            5,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.004464285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010949154345,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010854503464,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.004464285714,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00648486863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 1,
        "value": 0.011060761488,
        "value_label": "1.106%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.106%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            6,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.005357142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011060761488,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010969976905,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.005357142857,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00570361863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "value": 0.011060761488,
        "value_label": "1.106%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.106%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            6,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.005357142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011060761488,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010969976905,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.005357142857,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00570361863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "value": 0.01117236863,
        "value_label": "1.117%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.117%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            7,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.00625,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01117236863,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011085450346,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.00625,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00492236863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "value": 0.011283975773,
        "value_label": "1.128%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.128%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            8,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.007142857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011283975773,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011200923788,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.007142857143,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00414111863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "value": 0.011283975773,
        "value_label": "1.128%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.128%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            8,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.007142857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011283975773,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011200923788,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.007142857143,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00414111863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "value": 0.011395582916,
        "value_label": "1.140%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.140%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            9,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008035714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011395582916,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011316397229,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008035714286,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00335986863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "value": 0.011507190059,
        "value_label": "1.151%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.151%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            10,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008928571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011507190059,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.01143187067,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008928571429,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00257861863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 8,
        "value": 0.011507190059,
        "value_label": "1.151%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.151%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            10,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008928571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011507190059,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.01143187067,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008928571429,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00257861863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 9,
        "value": 0.011618797202,
        "value_label": "1.162%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.162%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            11,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.009821428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011618797202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011547344111,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.009821428571,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00179736863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 10,
        "value": 0.011730404345,
        "value_label": "1.173%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.173%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            12,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.010714285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011730404345,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011662817552,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.010714285714,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00101611863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 11,
        "value": 0.011730404345,
        "value_label": "1.173%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.173%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            12,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.010714285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011730404345,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011662817552,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.010714285714,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00101611863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 12,
        "value": 0.011842011488,
        "value_label": "1.184%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.184%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            13,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.011607142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011842011488,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011778290993,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.011607142857,
          "cycle_gap": -0.00023486863,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 13,
        "value": 0.01195361863,
        "value_label": "1.195%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.195%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            14,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.0125,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01195361863,
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          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00054638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 14,
        "value": 0.01195361863,
        "value_label": "1.195%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.195%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            14,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.0125,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01195361863,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011893764434,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00054638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 15,
        "value": 0.012065225773,
        "value_label": "1.207%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.207%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            15,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.013392857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012065225773,
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          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013392857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00132763137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 16,
        "value": 0.012176832916,
        "value_label": "1.218%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.218%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            16,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.014285714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012176832916,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00210888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 17,
        "value": 0.012176832916,
        "value_label": "1.218%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.218%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            16,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.014285714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012176832916,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00210888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 18,
        "value": 0.012288440059,
        "value_label": "1.229%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.229%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            17,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.015178571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012288440059,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00289013137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 19,
        "value": 0.012400047202,
        "value_label": "1.240%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.240%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            18,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.016071428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012400047202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012355658199,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.016071428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00367138137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 20,
        "value": 0.012400047202,
        "value_label": "1.240%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.240%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            18,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.016071428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012400047202,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00367138137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 21,
        "value": 0.012511654345,
        "value_label": "1.251%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.251%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            19,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.016964285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012511654345,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00445263137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 22,
        "value": 0.012623261488,
        "value_label": "1.262%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.262%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            20,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.017857142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012623261488,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012586605081,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.017857142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00523388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 23,
        "value": 0.012623261488,
        "value_label": "1.262%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.262%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            20,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.017857142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012623261488,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00523388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 24,
        "value": 0.01273486863,
        "value_label": "1.273%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.273%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            21,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01875,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 25,
        "value": 0.012846475773,
        "value_label": "1.285%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.285%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            22,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.019642857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00679638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 26,
        "value": 0.012846475773,
        "value_label": "1.285%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.285%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            22,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.019642857143,
            0.015652173913,
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012846475773,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 27,
        "value": 0.012958082916,
        "value_label": "1.296%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.296%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            23,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.020535714286,
            0.015652173913,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00757763137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 28,
        "value": 0.013069690059,
        "value_label": "1.307%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.307%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            24,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.021428571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013069690059,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00835888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 29,
        "value": 0.013069690059,
        "value_label": "1.307%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.307%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            24,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.021428571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013069690059,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00835888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 30,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013163972286,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00914013137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 31,
        "value": 0.013292904345,
        "value_label": "1.329%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.329%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            26,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.023214285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013292904345,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013279445727,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.023214285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00992138137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 32,
        "value": 0.013292904345,
        "value_label": "1.329%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.329%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            26,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.023214285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013292904345,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00992138137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 33,
        "value": 0.013404511488,
        "value_label": "1.340%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.340%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            27,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.024107142857,
            0.015652173913,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01070263137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 34,
        "value": 0.01351611863,
        "value_label": "1.352%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.352%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            28,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.025,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01148388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 35,
        "value": 0.01351611863,
        "value_label": "1.352%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.352%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            28,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.025,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01148388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 36,
        "value": 0.013627725773,
        "value_label": "1.363%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.363%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            29,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.025892857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013627725773,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01226513137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 37,
        "value": 0.013739332916,
        "value_label": "1.374%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.374%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            30,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.026785714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013739332916,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01304638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 38,
        "value": 0.013739332916,
        "value_label": "1.374%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.374%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            30,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.026785714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013739332916,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01304638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 39,
        "value": 0.013850940059,
        "value_label": "1.385%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.385%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            31,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.027678571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013850940059,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01382763137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 40,
        "value": 0.013962547202,
        "value_label": "1.396%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.396%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            32,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.028571428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013962547202,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01460888137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 41,
        "value": 0.013962547202,
        "value_label": "1.396%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.396%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            32,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
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            0.015652173913,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01460888137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 42,
        "value": 0.014074154345,
        "value_label": "1.407%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.407%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            33,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.029464285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014074154345,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01539013137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 43,
        "value": 0.014185761488,
        "value_label": "1.419%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.419%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            34,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.030357142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014185761488,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01617138137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 44,
        "value": 0.014185761488,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.419%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            34,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.030357142857,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 45,
        "value": 0.01429736863,
        "value_label": "1.430%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.430%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            35,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.03125,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 46,
        "value": 0.014408975773,
        "value_label": "1.441%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.441%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            36,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.032142857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014408975773,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014434180139,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01773388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 47,
        "value": 0.014408975773,
        "value_label": "1.441%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.441%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            36,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.032142857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014408975773,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01773388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 48,
        "value": 0.014520582916,
        "value_label": "1.452%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.452%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            37,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.033035714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014520582916,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.01454965358,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033035714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.01851513137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 49,
        "value": 0.014632190059,
        "value_label": "1.463%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.463%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            38,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.033928571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014632190059,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014665127021,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033928571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.01929638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 50,
        "value": 0.014632190059,
        "value_label": "1.463%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.463%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            38,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.033928571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014632190059,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014665127021,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033928571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.01929638137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 51,
        "value": 0.014743797202,
        "value_label": "1.474%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.474%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            39,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.034821428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014743797202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014780600462,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.034821428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.02007763137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 52,
        "value": 0.014855404345,
        "value_label": "1.486%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.486%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            40,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.035714285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014855404345,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014896073903,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.035714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.02085888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 53,
        "value": 0.014855404345,
        "value_label": "1.486%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.486%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            40,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.035714285714,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014855404345,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014896073903,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.035714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.02085888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 54,
        "value": 0.014967011488,
        "value_label": "1.497%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.497%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            41,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.036607142857,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014967011488,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.015011547344,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.036607142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.02164013137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 55,
        "value": 0.01507861863,
        "value_label": "1.508%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.508%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            42,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.0375,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01507861863,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.015127020785,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0375,
          "cycle_gap": 0.02242138137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 56,
        "value": 0.01507861863,
        "value_label": "1.508%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.508%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            42,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.0375,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01507861863,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.015127020785,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0375,
          "cycle_gap": 0.02242138137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 57,
        "value": 0.015190225773,
        "value_label": "1.519%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.519%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            43,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.038392857143,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015190225773,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.015242494226,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.02320263137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 58,
        "value": 0.015301832916,
        "value_label": "1.530%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.530%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            44,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.039285714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015301832916,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.015357967667,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.02398388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 59,
        "value": 0.015301832916,
        "value_label": "1.530%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.530%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            44,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.039285714286,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015301832916,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.015357967667,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.02398388137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 60,
        "value": 0.015413440059,
        "value_label": "1.541%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.541%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            45,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.040178571429,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015413440059,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.02476513137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "name": "Adverse shift",
    "description": "Synthetic adverse shift sweep; only declared fields change while the topic contract remains fixed.",
    "canonical_step": 30,
    "summary": {
      "focus_step": 30,
      "focus_kind": "canonical-fixture",
      "canonical_output_match": true,
      "state_counts": {
        "current-above-long-run": 61
      },
      "value_min": 0.006709057391,
      "value_max": 0.019653537013,
      "segments": [
        {
          "start_step": 0,
          "end_step": 60,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "0.671%",
          "end_value_label": "1.965%"
        }
      ]
    },
    "states": [
      {
        "step": 0,
        "value": 0.006709057391,
        "value_label": "0.671%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.671%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            4,
            6,
            10,
            8,
            4,
            12,
            9,
            5
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004,
            0.005714285714,
            0.010204081633,
            0.007272727273,
            0.003703703704,
            0.010714285714,
            0.007826086957,
            0.004237288136
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.006709057391,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.006697459584,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.010714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.004005228323,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 1,
        "value": 0.006820664534,
        "value_label": "0.682%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.682%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            4,
            6,
            10,
            8,
            4,
            13,
            9,
            5
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004,
            0.005714285714,
            0.010204081633,
            0.007272727273,
            0.003703703704,
            0.011607142857,
            0.007826086957,
            0.004237288136
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.006820664534,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.006812933025,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.011607142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.004786478323,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "value": 0.007056911207,
        "value_label": "0.706%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.706%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            4,
            6,
            11,
            8,
            4,
            13,
            10,
            5
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004,
            0.005714285714,
            0.011224489796,
            0.007272727273,
            0.003703703704,
            0.011607142857,
            0.008695652174,
            0.004237288136
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007056911207,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007043879908,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.011607142857,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "value": 0.007274450553,
        "value_label": "0.727%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.727%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            6,
            11,
            8,
            4,
            14,
            10,
            6
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          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004,
            0.005714285714,
            0.011224489796,
            0.007272727273,
            0.003703703704,
            0.0125,
            0.008695652174,
            0.005084745763
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007274450553,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005225549447,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "value": 0.007399450553,
        "value_label": "0.740%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.740%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            6,
            11,
            8,
            4,
            14,
            10,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.005714285714,
            0.011224489796,
            0.007272727273,
            0.003703703704,
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            0.008695652174,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "value": 0.00775224508,
        "value_label": "0.775%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.775%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            6,
            12,
            9,
            4,
            15,
            10,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005,
            0.005714285714,
            0.012244897959,
            0.008181818182,
            0.003703703704,
            0.013392857143,
            0.008695652174,
            0.005084745763
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005640612063,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "value": 0.007979988351,
        "value_label": "0.798%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.798%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            12,
            9,
            4,
            15,
            11,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.012244897959,
            0.008181818182,
            0.003703703704,
            0.013392857143,
            0.009565217391,
            0.005084745763
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007979988351,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005412868792,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "value": 0.007979988351,
        "value_label": "0.798%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.798%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            7,
            12,
            9,
            4,
            15,
            11,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
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            0.012244897959,
            0.008181818182,
            0.003703703704,
            0.013392857143,
            0.009565217391,
            0.005084745763
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005412868792,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 8,
        "value": 0.008332782878,
        "value_label": "0.833%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.833%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            5,
            7,
            13,
            10,
            4,
            16,
            11,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005,
            0.006666666667,
            0.013265306122,
            0.009090909091,
            0.003703703704,
            0.014285714286,
            0.009565217391,
            0.005084745763
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008332782878,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005952931408,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 9,
        "value": 0.008557219271,
        "value_label": "0.856%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.856%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            13,
            10,
            5,
            16,
            12,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.006666666667,
            0.013265306122,
            0.009090909091,
            0.00462962963,
            0.014285714286,
            0.010434782609,
            0.005084745763
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008557219271,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005728495015,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 10,
        "value": 0.008774758617,
        "value_label": "0.877%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.877%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            7,
            13,
            10,
            5,
            17,
            12,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005,
            0.006666666667,
            0.013265306122,
            0.009090909091,
            0.00462962963,
            0.015178571429,
            0.010434782609,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008774758617,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008775981524,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.006403812811,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 11,
        "value": 0.009021357257,
        "value_label": "0.902%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.902%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            8,
            14,
            10,
            5,
            17,
            12,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005,
            0.007619047619,
            0.014285714286,
            0.009090909091,
            0.00462962963,
            0.015178571429,
            0.010434782609,
            0.00593220339
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 12,
        "value": 0.009366660052,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.937%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            8,
            14,
            10,
            5,
            18,
            13,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.007619047619,
            0.014285714286,
            0.009090909091,
            0.00462962963,
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            0.011304347826,
            0.00593220339
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 13,
        "value": 0.009480296415,
        "value_label": "0.948%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.948%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            6,
            8,
            14,
            11,
            5,
            18,
            13,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.007619047619,
            0.014285714286,
            0.01,
            0.00462962963,
            0.016071428571,
            0.011304347826,
            0.00593220339
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009480296415,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.006591132156,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 14,
        "value": 0.009607847436,
        "value_label": "0.961%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.961%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            6,
            8,
            15,
            11,
            5,
            18,
            13,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.007619047619,
            0.015306122449,
            0.01,
            0.00462962963,
            0.016071428571,
            0.011304347826,
            0.00593220339
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009607847436,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 15,
        "value": 0.009934082434,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.993%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            8,
            15,
            11,
            5,
            19,
            14,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.015306122449,
            0.01,
            0.00462962963,
            0.016964285714,
            0.012173913043,
            0.006779661017
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00703020328,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 16,
        "value": 0.010047718798,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.005%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            15,
            12,
            5,
            19,
            14,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.007619047619,
            0.015306122449,
            0.010909090909,
            0.00462962963,
            0.016964285714,
            0.012173913043,
            0.006779661017
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010047718798,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 17,
        "value": 0.01040592458,
        "value_label": "1.041%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.041%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            16,
            12,
            5,
            20,
            14,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.008571428571,
            0.016326530612,
            0.010909090909,
            0.00462962963,
            0.017857142857,
            0.012173913043,
            0.006779661017
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01040592458,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007451218277,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 18,
        "value": 0.010521665321,
        "value_label": "1.052%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.052%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            16,
            12,
            6,
            20,
            14,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.008571428571,
            0.016326530612,
            0.010909090909,
            0.005555555556,
            0.017857142857,
            0.012173913043,
            0.006779661017
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010521665321,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010508083141,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007335477536,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 19,
        "value": 0.010755360973,
        "value_label": "1.076%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.076%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            9,
            16,
            12,
            6,
            20,
            15,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.008571428571,
            0.016326530612,
            0.010909090909,
            0.005555555556,
            0.017857142857,
            0.013043478261,
            0.006779661017
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010755360973,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007101781884,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 20,
        "value": 0.010994519136,
        "value_label": "1.099%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.099%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            9,
            17,
            12,
            6,
            21,
            15,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.008571428571,
            0.017346938776,
            0.010909090909,
            0.005555555556,
            0.01875,
            0.013043478261,
            0.006779661017
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007755480864,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 21,
        "value": 0.0111081555,
        "value_label": "1.111%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.111%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            9,
            17,
            13,
            6,
            21,
            15,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.008571428571,
            0.017346938776,
            0.011818181818,
            0.005555555556,
            0.01875,
            0.013043478261,
            0.006779661017
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          "cycle_gap": 0.0076418445,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 22,
        "value": 0.011553438117,
        "value_label": "1.155%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.155%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            10,
            17,
            13,
            6,
            22,
            16,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
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        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.017346938776,
            0.011818181818,
            0.005555555556,
            0.019642857143,
            0.013913043478,
            0.007627118644
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011553438117,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008089419026,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 23,
        "value": 0.011680989138,
        "value_label": "1.168%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.168%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            10,
            18,
            13,
            6,
            22,
            16,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009523809524,
            0.018367346939,
            0.011818181818,
            0.005555555556,
            0.019642857143,
            0.013913043478,
            0.007627118644
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011680989138,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007961868005,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 24,
        "value": 0.011794625501,
        "value_label": "1.179%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.179%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            10,
            18,
            14,
            6,
            22,
            16,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009523809524,
            0.018367346939,
            0.012727272727,
            0.005555555556,
            0.019642857143,
            0.013913043478,
            0.007627118644
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011794625501,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007848231642,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 25,
        "value": 0.011906232644,
        "value_label": "1.191%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.191%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            10,
            18,
            14,
            6,
            23,
            16,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.009523809524,
            0.018367346939,
            0.012727272727,
            0.005555555556,
            0.020535714286,
            0.013913043478,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011906232644,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008629481642,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 26,
        "value": 0.012258220058,
        "value_label": "1.226%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.226%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            10,
            19,
            14,
            7,
            23,
            17,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.009523809524,
            0.019387755102,
            0.012727272727,
            0.006481481481,
            0.020535714286,
            0.014782608696,
            0.007627118644
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012258220058,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012240184758,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008277494228,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 27,
        "value": 0.012600759404,
        "value_label": "1.260%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.260%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            10,
            19,
            14,
            7,
            24,
            17,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.009523809524,
            0.019387755102,
            0.012727272727,
            0.006481481481,
            0.021428571429,
            0.014782608696,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012600759404,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008827812025,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 28,
        "value": 0.012719807023,
        "value_label": "1.272%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.272%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            19,
            14,
            7,
            24,
            17,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.019387755102,
            0.012727272727,
            0.006481481481,
            0.021428571429,
            0.014782608696,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008708764406,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 29,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00914013137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 30,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 31,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 32,
        "value": 0.013529151017,
        "value_label": "1.353%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.353%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            21,
            15,
            7,
            26,
            19,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.021428571429,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.023214285714,
            0.01652173913,
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013529151017,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009685134697,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 33,
        "value": 0.013761835,
        "value_label": "1.376%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.376%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            12,
            21,
            16,
            7,
            26,
            19,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.011428571429,
            0.021428571429,
            0.014545454545,
            0.006481481481,
            0.023214285714,
            0.01652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013761835,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013741339492,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009452450714,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 34,
        "value": 0.014104374346,
        "value_label": "1.410%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.410%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            12,
            21,
            16,
            7,
            27,
            19,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.011428571429,
            0.021428571429,
            0.014545454545,
            0.006481481481,
            0.024107142857,
            0.01652173913,
            0.009322033898
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014104374346,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014087759815,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.024107142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.010002768511,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 35,
        "value": 0.01445636176,
        "value_label": "1.446%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.446%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
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            22,
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            11
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          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
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      },
      {
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1100,
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": 37,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.468%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
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            1180
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": 38,
        "value": 0.014809156286,
        "value_label": "1.481%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.481%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
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        "output": {
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": 39,
        "value": 0.015254438904,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.525%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": 40,
        "value": 0.015254438904,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.525%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            23,
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        }
      },
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            21,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.584%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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          "annual_obligors": [
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            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            24,
            18,
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            22,
            12
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            0.019130434783,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 43,
        "value": 0.015956669824,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.596%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            24,
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            22,
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        }
      },
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
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            1180
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      },
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
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            25,
            19,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.688%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
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            1150,
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
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            1150,
            1180
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        }
      },
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            26,
            20,
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            24,
            13
          ],
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            0.026530612245,
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        }
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.759%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
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            1150,
            1180
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            27,
            20,
            9,
            33,
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            13
          ],
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        },
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            0.027551020408,
            0.018181818182,
            0.008333333333,
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            0.020869565217,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 51,
        "value": 0.017805375133,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.781%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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            27,
            20,
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            34,
            24,
            14
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        },
        "output": {
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            0.027551020408,
            0.018181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.030357142857,
            0.020869565217,
            0.01186440678
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.017805375133,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.017782909931,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.030357142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012551767724,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 52,
        "value": 0.018029811526,
        "value_label": "1.803%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.803%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            15,
            27,
            20,
            10,
            34,
            25,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.014285714286,
            0.027551020408,
            0.018181818182,
            0.009259259259,
            0.030357142857,
            0.021739130435,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018029811526,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018013856813,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.030357142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012327331331,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 53,
        "value": 0.018382606053,
        "value_label": "1.838%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.838%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            15,
            28,
            21,
            10,
            35,
            25,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.014285714286,
            0.028571428571,
            0.019090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.03125,
            0.021739130435,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018382606053,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018360277136,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.03125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012867393947,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 54,
        "value": 0.018382606053,
        "value_label": "1.838%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.838%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            15,
            28,
            21,
            10,
            35,
            25,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.014285714286,
            0.028571428571,
            0.019090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.03125,
            0.021739130435,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018382606053,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018360277136,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.03125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012867393947,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 55,
        "value": 0.018501653672,
        "value_label": "1.850%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.850%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            16,
            28,
            21,
            10,
            35,
            25,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.015238095238,
            0.028571428571,
            0.019090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.03125,
            0.021739130435,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018501653672,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018475750577,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.03125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012748346328,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 56,
        "value": 0.018963143851,
        "value_label": "1.896%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.896%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            16,
            29,
            22,
            10,
            36,
            26,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.015238095238,
            0.029591836735,
            0.02,
            0.009259259259,
            0.032142857143,
            0.022608695652,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018963143851,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018937644342,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.032142857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013179713292,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 57,
        "value": 0.019088143851,
        "value_label": "1.909%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.909%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            16,
            29,
            22,
            10,
            36,
            26,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.015238095238,
            0.029591836735,
            0.02,
            0.009259259259,
            0.032142857143,
            0.022608695652,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019088143851,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019053117783,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.032142857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013054713292,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 58,
        "value": 0.019305683197,
        "value_label": "1.931%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.931%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            16,
            29,
            22,
            10,
            37,
            26,
            15
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.015238095238,
            0.029591836735,
            0.02,
            0.009259259259,
            0.033035714286,
            0.022608695652,
            0.012711864407
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019305683197,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019284064665,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033035714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013730031089,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 59,
        "value": 0.01954192987,
        "value_label": "1.954%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.954%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            16,
            30,
            22,
            10,
            37,
            27,
            15
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.015238095238,
            0.030612244898,
            0.02,
            0.009259259259,
            0.033035714286,
            0.02347826087,
            0.012711864407
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01954192987,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019515011547,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033035714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013493784416,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 60,
        "value": 0.019653537013,
        "value_label": "1.965%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.965%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            16,
            30,
            22,
            10,
            38,
            27,
            15
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.015238095238,
            0.030612244898,
            0.02,
            0.009259259259,
            0.033928571429,
            0.02347826087,
            0.012711864407
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019653537013,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019630484988,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033928571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.014275034416,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "name": "Protective shift",
    "description": "Synthetic protective shift sweep; only declared fields change while the topic contract remains fixed.",
    "canonical_step": 30,
    "summary": {
      "focus_step": 30,
      "focus_kind": "comparison",
      "canonical_output_match": false,
      "state_counts": {
        "current-above-long-run": 61
      },
      "value_min": 0.012602593498,
      "value_max": 0.014917408313,
      "segments": [
        {
          "start_step": 0,
          "end_step": 60,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "1.260%",
          "end_value_label": "1.492%"
        }
      ]
    },
    "states": [
      {
        "step": 0,
        "value": 0.012602593498,
        "value_label": "1.260%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.260%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            2,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.001851851852,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012602593498,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012586605081,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009718835073,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 1,
        "value": 0.012602593498,
        "value_label": "1.260%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.260%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            2,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.001851851852,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012602593498,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012586605081,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009718835073,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "value": 0.012718334239,
        "value_label": "1.272%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.272%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            3,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.002777777778,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012718334239,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012702078522,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009603094333,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "value": 0.012718334239,
        "value_label": "1.272%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.272%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            3,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.002777777778,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012718334239,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009603094333,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "value": 0.012718334239,
        "value_label": "1.272%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.272%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            3,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.002777777778,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012718334239,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012702078522,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009603094333,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "value": 0.01283407498,
        "value_label": "1.283%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.283%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            4,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.003703703704,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01283407498,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012817551963,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009487353592,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "value": 0.01283407498,
        "value_label": "1.283%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.283%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            4,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.003703703704,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01283407498,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012817551963,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009487353592,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "value": 0.01283407498,
        "value_label": "1.283%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.283%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            4,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.003703703704,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01283407498,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012817551963,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009487353592,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 8,
        "value": 0.01294981572,
        "value_label": "1.295%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.295%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            5,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.00462962963,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01294981572,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012933025404,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.009371612851,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 9,
        "value": 0.01294981572,
        "value_label": "1.295%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.295%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            5,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.00462962963,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01294981572,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009371612851,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 10,
        "value": 0.01294981572,
        "value_label": "1.295%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.295%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            5,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.00462962963,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01294981572,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009371612851,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 11,
        "value": 0.013065556461,
        "value_label": "1.307%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.307%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            6,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.005555555556,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013065556461,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013048498845,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00925587211,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 12,
        "value": 0.013065556461,
        "value_label": "1.307%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.307%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            6,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.005555555556,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013065556461,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013048498845,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00925587211,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 13,
        "value": 0.013065556461,
        "value_label": "1.307%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.307%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            6,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.005555555556,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013065556461,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013048498845,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00925587211,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 14,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013163972286,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00914013137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 15,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00914013137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 16,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00914013137,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 17,
        "value": 0.013297037943,
        "value_label": "1.330%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.330%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            8,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.007407407407,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013297037943,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009024390629,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 18,
        "value": 0.013297037943,
        "value_label": "1.330%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.330%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            8,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.007407407407,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013297037943,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009024390629,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 19,
        "value": 0.013297037943,
        "value_label": "1.330%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.330%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            8,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.007407407407,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013297037943,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.009024390629,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 20,
        "value": 0.013412778683,
        "value_label": "1.341%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.341%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            9,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.008333333333,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013412778683,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008908649888,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 21,
        "value": 0.013412778683,
        "value_label": "1.341%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.341%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            9,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
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          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.008333333333,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013412778683,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008908649888,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 22,
        "value": 0.013412778683,
        "value_label": "1.341%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.341%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            9,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.008333333333,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013412778683,
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          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.022321428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.008908649888,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 23,
        "value": 0.013528519424,
        "value_label": "1.353%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.353%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            10,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.009259259259,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013528519424,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008792909147,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 24,
        "value": 0.013528519424,
        "value_label": "1.353%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.353%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            10,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.009259259259,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013528519424,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 25,
        "value": 0.013528519424,
        "value_label": "1.353%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.353%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            10,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.009259259259,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013528519424,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008792909147,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 26,
        "value": 0.013644260165,
        "value_label": "1.364%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.364%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            11,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.010185185185,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013644260165,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008677168407,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 27,
        "value": 0.013644260165,
        "value_label": "1.364%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.364%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            11,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.010185185185,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013644260165,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008677168407,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 28,
        "value": 0.013644260165,
        "value_label": "1.364%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.364%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            11,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.010185185185,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013644260165,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008677168407,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 29,
        "value": 0.013760000906,
        "value_label": "1.376%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.376%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            12,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.011111111111,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013760000906,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008561427666,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 30,
        "value": 0.013760000906,
        "value_label": "1.376%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.376%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            12,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.011111111111,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013760000906,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008561427666,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 31,
        "value": 0.013760000906,
        "value_label": "1.376%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.376%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            12,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 32,
        "value": 0.013875741646,
        "value_label": "1.388%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.388%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            13,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 33,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.388%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            13,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.012037037037,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013875741646,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 34,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.388%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            13,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.012037037037,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 35,
        "value": 0.013991482387,
        "value_label": "1.399%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.399%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            14,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.012962962963,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013991482387,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008329946184,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 36,
        "value": 0.013991482387,
        "value_label": "1.399%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.399%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            14,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.012962962963,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013991482387,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 37,
        "value": 0.013991482387,
        "value_label": "1.399%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.399%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            14,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.012962962963,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013991482387,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008329946184,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 38,
        "value": 0.014107223128,
        "value_label": "1.411%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.411%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            15,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.013888888889,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014107223128,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014087759815,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008214205444,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 39,
        "value": 0.014107223128,
        "value_label": "1.411%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.411%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            15,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.013888888889,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014107223128,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008214205444,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 40,
        "value": 0.014107223128,
        "value_label": "1.411%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.411%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            15,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.013888888889,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014107223128,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008214205444,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 41,
        "value": 0.014222963869,
        "value_label": "1.422%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.422%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            16,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.014814814815,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014222963869,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008098464703,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 42,
        "value": 0.014222963869,
        "value_label": "1.422%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.422%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            16,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.014814814815,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014222963869,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008098464703,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 43,
        "value": 0.014222963869,
        "value_label": "1.422%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.422%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            16,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.014814814815,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014222963869,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008098464703,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 44,
        "value": 0.014338704609,
        "value_label": "1.434%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.434%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            17,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.015740740741,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014338704609,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007982723962,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 45,
        "value": 0.014338704609,
        "value_label": "1.434%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.434%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            17,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.015740740741,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014338704609,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007982723962,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 46,
        "value": 0.014338704609,
        "value_label": "1.434%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.434%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            17,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.015740740741,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014338704609,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007982723962,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 47,
        "value": 0.01445444535,
        "value_label": "1.445%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.445%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            18,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.016666666667,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007866983221,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 48,
        "value": 0.01445444535,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.445%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            18,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.016666666667,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 49,
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        "value_label": "1.445%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.445%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            18,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.016666666667,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 50,
        "value": 0.014570186091,
        "value_label": "1.457%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.457%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            19,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.017592592593,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007751242481,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 51,
        "value": 0.014570186091,
        "value_label": "1.457%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.457%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            19,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
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            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 52,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.457%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            19,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.017592592593,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 53,
        "value": 0.014685926832,
        "value_label": "1.469%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.469%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            20,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.018518518519,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014685926832,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00763550174,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 54,
        "value": 0.014685926832,
        "value_label": "1.469%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.469%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            20,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.018518518519,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014685926832,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00763550174,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 55,
        "value": 0.014685926832,
        "value_label": "1.469%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.469%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            20,
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            10
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          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 56,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 57,
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            1100,
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      },
      {
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      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "name": "Threshold or boundary",
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        {
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        {
          "start_step": 38,
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        {
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            1100,
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            1100,
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            1100,
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            1100,
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        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 7,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013163972286,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008474576271,
          "cycle_gap": -0.004706720931,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 59,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 7,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013163972286,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008474576271,
          "cycle_gap": -0.004706720931,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 60,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 7,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013163972286,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008474576271,
          "cycle_gap": -0.004706720931,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "name": "Sensitivity",
    "description": "Synthetic sensitivity sweep; only declared fields change while the topic contract remains fixed.",
    "canonical_step": 30,
    "summary": {
      "focus_step": 30,
      "focus_kind": "comparison",
      "canonical_output_match": false,
      "state_counts": {
        "current-above-long-run": 61
      },
      "value_min": 0.011879213869,
      "value_max": 0.01664111863,
      "segments": [
        {
          "start_step": 0,
          "end_step": 60,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "1.664%",
          "end_value_label": "1.188%"
        }
      ]
    },
    "states": [
      {
        "step": 0,
        "value": 0.01664111863,
        "value_label": "1.664%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.664%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            500,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.05,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01664111863,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014179104478,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.05,
          "cycle_gap": 0.03335888137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 1,
        "value": 0.016320909902,
        "value_label": "1.632%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.632%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            527,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.047438330171,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.016320909902,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014131647453,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.047438330171,
          "cycle_gap": 0.031117420269,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "value": 0.016042113205,
        "value_label": "1.604%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.604%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            553,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.0452079566,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.016042113205,
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          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0452079566,
          "cycle_gap": 0.029165843395,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "value": 0.015779049665,
        "value_label": "1.578%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.578%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            580,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.043103448276,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015779049665,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014039408867,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.043103448276,
          "cycle_gap": 0.027324398611,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "value": 0.015539388812,
        "value_label": "1.554%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.554%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            607,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.04118616145,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015539388812,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013992880815,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.04118616145,
          "cycle_gap": 0.025646772638,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "value": 0.015327927477,
        "value_label": "1.533%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.533%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            633,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.039494470774,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015327927477,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013948366573,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.024166543297,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "value": 0.015125967115,
        "value_label": "1.513%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.513%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            660,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.037878787879,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015125967115,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.022752820763,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "value": 0.014939881367,
        "value_label": "1.494%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.494%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            687,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.036390101892,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014939881367,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013856812933,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.036390101892,
          "cycle_gap": 0.021450220525,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 8,
        "value": 0.014774007831,
        "value_label": "1.477%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.477%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            713,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.035063113604,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014774007831,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013813158851,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.020289105773,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 9,
        "value": 0.014614091603,
        "value_label": "1.461%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.461%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            740,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.033783783784,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014614091603,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013768115942,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01916969218,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 10,
        "value": 0.014465434145,
        "value_label": "1.447%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.447%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            767,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.03259452412,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014465434145,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013723365836,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.018129089975,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 11,
        "value": 0.01433185003,
        "value_label": "1.433%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.433%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            793,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.031525851198,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01433185003,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013680547222,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.031525851198,
          "cycle_gap": 0.017194001168,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 12,
        "value": 0.01420209424,
        "value_label": "1.420%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.420%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            820,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.030487804878,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01420209424,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 13,
        "value": 0.014080610956,
        "value_label": "1.408%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.408%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            847,
            1150,
            1180
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.029515938607,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 14,
        "value": 0.013970729169,
        "value_label": "1.397%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.397%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            873,
            1150,
            1180
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
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            0.028636884307,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 15,
        "value": 0.013863340853,
        "value_label": "1.386%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.386%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            900,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 16,
        "value": 0.013762208167,
        "value_label": "1.376%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.376%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            927,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.026968716289,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.013206508123,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 17,
        "value": 0.013670237203,
        "value_label": "1.367%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.367%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            953,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.026232948583,
            0.015652173913,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 18,
        "value": 0.013579894141,
        "value_label": "1.358%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.358%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            980,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.025510204082,
            0.015652173913,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.011930309941,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 19,
        "value": 0.013494395691,
        "value_label": "1.349%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.349%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1007,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.024826216485,
            0.015652173913,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.011331820794,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 20,
        "value": 0.01341628804,
        "value_label": "1.342%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.342%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1033,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.024201355276,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 21,
        "value": 0.013339231838,
        "value_label": "1.334%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.334%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1060,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 22,
        "value": 0.013266003635,
        "value_label": "1.327%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.327%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1087,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
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        },
        "output": {
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 23,
        "value": 0.013198845495,
        "value_label": "1.320%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.320%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1113,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022461814915,
            0.015652173913,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 24,
        "value": 0.013132346701,
        "value_label": "1.313%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.313%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1140,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.013636363636,
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            0.021929824561,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008797477861,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 25,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.307%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1167,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.013636363636,
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            0.021422450728,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 26,
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        "value_label": "1.301%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.301%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1193,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.020408163265,
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            0.020955574183,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 27,
        "value": 0.01295259404,
        "value_label": "1.295%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.295%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
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            1000,
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1220,
            1150,
            1180
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.020491803279,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01295259404,
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 28,
        "value": 0.012897133065,
        "value_label": "1.290%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.290%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
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            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1247,
            1150,
            1180
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          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.020048115477,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012897133065,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.007150982412,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 29,
        "value": 0.012845949738,
        "value_label": "1.285%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.285%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1273,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.019638648861,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012845949738,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012935436287,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.006792699123,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 30,
        "value": 0.012794964784,
        "value_label": "1.279%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.279%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1300,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.019230769231,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012794964784,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.006435804446,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 31,
        "value": 0.012746054576,
        "value_label": "1.275%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.275%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1327,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.018839487566,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012746054576,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00609343299,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 32,
        "value": 0.012700800818,
        "value_label": "1.270%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.270%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1353,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.018477457502,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012700800818,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.01281907118,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005776656684,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 33,
        "value": 0.012655611384,
        "value_label": "1.266%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.266%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1380,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.018115942029,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012655611384,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005460330645,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 34,
        "value": 0.012612156299,
        "value_label": "1.261%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.261%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1407,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01776830135,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012612156299,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012741701129,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.005156145051,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 35,
        "value": 0.012571858337,
        "value_label": "1.257%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.257%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1433,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.017445917655,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012571858337,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.01270478101,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.004874059318,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 36,
        "value": 0.012531529589,
        "value_label": "1.253%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.253%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1460,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.017123287671,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012531529589,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012666666667,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.004591758082,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 37,
        "value": 0.012492665369,
        "value_label": "1.249%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.249%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1487,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.016812373907,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012492665369,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.004319708538,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 38,
        "value": 0.012456551545,
        "value_label": "1.246%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.246%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1513,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.016523463318,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "cycle_gap": 0.004066911773,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 39,
        "value": 0.01242033941,
        "value_label": "1.242%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.242%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1540,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.016233766234,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01242033941,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.003813426824,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 40,
        "value": 0.012385375172,
        "value_label": "1.239%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.239%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1567,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.015954052329,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012385375172,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.003568677158,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 41,
        "value": 0.012352826101,
        "value_label": "1.235%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.235%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1593,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.015693659761,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012352826101,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.003340833661,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 42,
        "value": 0.012320130976,
        "value_label": "1.232%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.232%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1620,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.015432098765,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012320130976,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.003111967789,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 43,
        "value": 0.012288507823,
        "value_label": "1.229%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.229%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1647,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01517911354,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012288507823,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012408838576,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.002890605717,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 44,
        "value": 0.012259020603,
        "value_label": "1.226%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.226%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1673,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01494321578,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012259020603,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012373819603,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.002684195177,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 45,
        "value": 0.012229353925,
        "value_label": "1.223%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.223%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1700,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.014705882353,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012229353925,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012337662338,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.014705882353,
          "cycle_gap": 0.002476528428,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 46,
        "value": 0.012200614867,
        "value_label": "1.220%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.220%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1727,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01447596989,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012200614867,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012301715766,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.01447596989,
          "cycle_gap": 0.002275355023,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 47,
        "value": 0.012173776931,
        "value_label": "1.217%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.217%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1753,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.0142612664,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012173776931,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012267297966,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0142612664,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00208748947,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 48,
        "value": 0.012146736608,
        "value_label": "1.215%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.215%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1780,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01404494382,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012146736608,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012231759657,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.01404494382,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001898207212,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 49,
        "value": 0.012120504353,
        "value_label": "1.212%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.212%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1807,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.013835085778,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012120504353,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012196426661,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013835085778,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001714581425,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 50,
        "value": 0.012095974059,
        "value_label": "1.210%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.210%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1833,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.013638843426,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012095974059,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012162594687,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013638843426,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001542869367,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 51,
        "value": 0.012071226157,
        "value_label": "1.207%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.207%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1860,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.013440860215,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012071226157,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012127659574,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013440860215,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001369634058,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 52,
        "value": 0.012047186463,
        "value_label": "1.205%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.205%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1887,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.01324854266,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012047186463,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012092924578,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.01324854266,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001201356197,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 53,
        "value": 0.012024678484,
        "value_label": "1.202%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.202%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1913,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.013068478829,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012024678484,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.001043800345,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 54,
        "value": 0.012001943373,
        "value_label": "1.200%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.200%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1940,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.012886597938,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012001943373,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.000884654565,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 55,
        "value": 0.011979832408,
        "value_label": "1.198%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.198%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1967,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.012709710219,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011979832408,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.000729877811,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 56,
        "value": 0.011959106588,
        "value_label": "1.196%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.196%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1993,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.012543903663,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011959106588,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011958460086,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.000584797075,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 57,
        "value": 0.011938148333,
        "value_label": "1.194%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.194%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            2020,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.012376237624,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011938148333,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00043808929,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 58,
        "value": 0.011917742959,
        "value_label": "1.192%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.192%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            2047,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.012212994626,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011917742959,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011891102535,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.000295251668,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 59,
        "value": 0.011898595717,
        "value_label": "1.190%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.190%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            2073,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.012059816691,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011898595717,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011858941017,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.000161220974,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 60,
        "value": 0.011879213869,
        "value_label": "1.188%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.188%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            2100,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.011904761905,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011879213869,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011825726141,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.011904761905,
          "cycle_gap": 2.5548036e-05,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "name": "Scale or horizon",
    "description": "Synthetic scale or horizon sweep; only declared fields change while the topic contract remains fixed.",
    "canonical_step": 30,
    "summary": {
      "focus_step": 30,
      "focus_kind": "comparison",
      "canonical_output_match": false,
      "state_counts": {
        "current-above-long-run": 61
      },
      "value_min": 0.00732294289,
      "value_max": 0.02196882867,
      "segments": [
        {
          "start_step": 0,
          "end_step": 60,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "2.197%",
          "end_value_label": "0.732%"
        }
      ]
    },
    "states": [
      {
        "step": 0,
        "value": 0.02196882867,
        "value_label": "2.197%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 2.197%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            600,
            630,
            588,
            660,
            648,
            672,
            690,
            708
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013333333333,
            0.01746031746,
            0.034013605442,
            0.022727272727,
            0.010802469136,
            0.037202380952,
            0.026086956522,
            0.014124293785
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.02196882867,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.021939953811,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.037202380952,
          "cycle_gap": 0.015233552283,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 1,
        "value": 0.021258329861,
        "value_label": "2.126%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 2.126%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            620,
            651,
            608,
            682,
            670,
            694,
            713,
            732
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012903225806,
            0.016897081413,
            0.032894736842,
            0.021994134897,
            0.010447761194,
            0.036023054755,
            0.025245441795,
            0.013661202186
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.021258329861,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.021229050279,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.036023054755,
          "cycle_gap": 0.014764724894,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "value": 0.020596637099,
        "value_label": "2.060%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 2.060%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            640,
            672,
            627,
            704,
            691,
            717,
            736,
            755
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.0125,
            0.016369047619,
            0.031897926635,
            0.021306818182,
            0.01013024602,
            0.034867503487,
            0.024456521739,
            0.013245033113
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.020596637099,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.020570191267,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.034867503487,
          "cycle_gap": 0.014270866387,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "value": 0.019970855341,
        "value_label": "1.997%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.997%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            660,
            693,
            647,
            726,
            713,
            739,
            759,
            779
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012121212121,
            0.015873015873,
            0.030911901082,
            0.020661157025,
            0.009817671809,
            0.033829499323,
            0.02371541502,
            0.012836970475
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019970855341,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019944016795,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.033829499323,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013858643982,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "value": 0.019385786093,
        "value_label": "1.939%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.939%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            680,
            714,
            666,
            748,
            734,
            762,
            782,
            802
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011764705882,
            0.015406162465,
            0.03003003003,
            0.020053475936,
            0.009536784741,
            0.03280839895,
            0.023017902813,
            0.01246882793
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019385786093,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019361413043,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.03280839895,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013422612857,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "value": 0.018830424574,
        "value_label": "1.883%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.883%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            700,
            735,
            686,
            770,
            756,
            784,
            805,
            826
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011428571429,
            0.014965986395,
            0.02915451895,
            0.019480519481,
            0.009259259259,
            0.031887755102,
            0.022360248447,
            0.01210653753
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018830424574,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018805674695,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.031887755102,
          "cycle_gap": 0.013057330528,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "value": 0.018306002106,
        "value_label": "1.831%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.831%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            720,
            756,
            706,
            792,
            778,
            806,
            828,
            850
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011111111111,
            0.01455026455,
            0.028328611898,
            0.018939393939,
            0.008997429306,
            0.031017369727,
            0.021739130435,
            0.011764705882
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018306002106,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018280949326,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.031017369727,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012711367621,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "value": 0.017813207127,
        "value_label": "1.781%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.781%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            740,
            777,
            725,
            814,
            799,
            829,
            851,
            873
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.010810810811,
            0.014157014157,
            0.027586206897,
            0.018427518428,
            0.008760951189,
            0.03015681544,
            0.021151586369,
            0.011454753723
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.017813207127,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.017790262172,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.03015681544,
          "cycle_gap": 0.012343608314,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 8,
        "value": 0.017343203352,
        "value_label": "1.734%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.734%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            760,
            798,
            745,
            836,
            821,
            851,
            874,
            897
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.010526315789,
            0.013784461153,
            0.026845637584,
            0.017942583732,
            0.008526187576,
            0.02937720329,
            0.020594965675,
            0.011148272018
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          "cycle_gap": 0.012033999938,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 9,
        "value": 0.016900258085,
        "value_label": "1.690%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.690%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            780,
            819,
            764,
            858,
            842,
            874,
            897,
            920
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.010256410256,
            0.013431013431,
            0.026178010471,
            0.017482517483,
            0.008313539192,
            0.028604118993,
            0.020066889632,
            0.010869565217
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          "cycle_gap": 0.011703860909,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 10,
        "value": 0.016476621502,
        "value_label": "1.648%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.648%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            800,
            840,
            784,
            880,
            864,
            896,
            920,
            944
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.013095238095,
            0.025510204082,
            0.017045454545,
            0.008101851852,
            0.027901785714,
            0.019565217391,
            0.010593220339
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 11,
        "value": 0.016073707675,
        "value_label": "1.607%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.607%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            820,
            861,
            804,
            902,
            886,
            918,
            943,
            968
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009756097561,
            0.012775842044,
            0.024875621891,
            0.016629711752,
            0.007900677201,
            0.027233115468,
            0.019088016967,
            0.010330578512
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.016073707675,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.011159407794,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 12,
        "value": 0.015692519702,
        "value_label": "1.569%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.569%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            840,
            882,
            823,
            924,
            907,
            941,
            966,
            991
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009523809524,
            0.012471655329,
            0.024301336574,
            0.016233766234,
            0.007717750827,
            0.026567481403,
            0.018633540373,
            0.010090817356
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          "cycle_gap": 0.0108749617,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 13,
        "value": 0.015326614302,
        "value_label": "1.533%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.533%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            860,
            903,
            843,
            946,
            929,
            963,
            989,
            1015
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009302325581,
            0.012181616833,
            0.023724792408,
            0.015856236786,
            0.007534983854,
            0.025960539979,
            0.018200202224,
            0.009852216749
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015326614302,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.010633925677,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 14,
        "value": 0.014979657272,
        "value_label": "1.498%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.498%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            880,
            924,
            862,
            968,
            950,
            986,
            1012,
            1038
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009090909091,
            0.011904761905,
            0.023201856148,
            0.015495867769,
            0.007368421053,
            0.025354969574,
            0.017786561265,
            0.009633911368
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014979657272,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014960629921,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.010375312303,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 15,
        "value": 0.01464588578,
        "value_label": "1.465%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.465%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            900,
            945,
            882,
            990,
            972,
            1008,
            1035,
            1062
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008888888889,
            0.01164021164,
            0.022675736961,
            0.015151515152,
            0.007201646091,
            0.024801587302,
            0.017391304348,
            0.009416195857
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01464588578,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014626635874,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.024801587302,
          "cycle_gap": 0.010155701522,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 16,
        "value": 0.014326666619,
        "value_label": "1.433%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.433%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            920,
            966,
            902,
            1012,
            994,
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            1058,
            1086
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008695652174,
            0.011387163561,
            0.022172949002,
            0.014822134387,
            0.007042253521,
            0.02427184466,
            0.017013232514,
            0.009208103131
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 17,
        "value": 0.014023055217,
        "value_label": "1.402%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.402%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            940,
            987,
            921,
            1034,
            1015,
            1053,
            1081,
            1109
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008510638298,
            0.011144883485,
            0.021715526602,
            0.014506769826,
            0.006896551724,
            0.023741690408,
            0.016651248844,
            0.009017132552
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014023055217,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 18,
        "value": 0.013730136314,
        "value_label": "1.373%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.373%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            960,
            1008,
            941,
            1056,
            1037,
            1075,
            1104,
            1133
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008333333333,
            0.010912698413,
            0.021253985122,
            0.014204545455,
            0.00675024108,
            0.023255813953,
            0.016304347826,
            0.008826125331
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 19,
        "value": 0.01345103727,
        "value_label": "1.345%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.345%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            980,
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            960,
            1078,
            1058,
            1098,
            1127,
            1156
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008163265306,
            0.010689990282,
            0.020833333333,
            0.013914656772,
            0.006616257089,
            0.02276867031,
            0.015971606034,
            0.008650519031
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 20,
        "value": 0.013181297202,
        "value_label": "1.318%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.318%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
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            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.010476190476,
            0.020408163265,
            0.013636363636,
            0.006481481481,
            0.022321428571,
            0.015652173913,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013181297202,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00914013137,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 21,
        "value": 0.012922164781,
        "value_label": "1.292%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.292%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1020,
            1071,
            1000,
            1122,
            1102,
            1142,
            1173,
            1204
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007843137255,
            0.010270774977,
            0.02,
            0.013368983957,
            0.006352087114,
            0.021891418564,
            0.015345268542,
            0.008305647841
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 22,
        "value": 0.012674649856,
        "value_label": "1.267%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.267%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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          "annual_obligors": [
            1040,
            1092,
            1019,
            1144,
            1123,
            1165,
            1196,
            1227
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.010073260073,
            0.019627085378,
            0.013111888112,
            0.006233303651,
            0.021459227468,
            0.015050167224,
            0.00814995925
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008784577612,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 23,
        "value": 0.012434873017,
        "value_label": "1.243%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.243%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
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            1113,
            1039,
            1166,
            1145,
            1187,
            1219,
            1251
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007547169811,
            0.009883198562,
            0.019249278152,
            0.012864493997,
            0.006113537118,
            0.021061499579,
            0.014766201805,
            0.007993605116
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012434873017,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.008626626561,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 24,
        "value": 0.012205509103,
        "value_label": "1.221%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.221%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1080,
            1134,
            1058,
            1188,
            1166,
            1210,
            1242,
            1274
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          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009700176367,
            0.018903591682,
            0.012626262626,
            0.006003430532,
            0.020661157025,
            0.014492753623,
            0.007849293564
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 25,
        "value": 0.011982997456,
        "value_label": "1.198%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.198%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1100,
            1155,
            1078,
            1210,
            1188,
            1232,
            1265,
            1298
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          "annual_defaults": [
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009523809524,
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            0.012396694215,
            0.005892255892,
            0.020292207792,
            0.014229249012,
            0.007704160247
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 26,
        "value": 0.011768454935,
        "value_label": "1.177%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.177%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1120,
            1176,
            1098,
            1232,
            1210,
            1254,
            1288,
            1322
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009353741497,
            0.018214936248,
            0.012175324675,
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            0.01397515528,
            0.00756429652
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 27,
        "value": 0.011562812391,
        "value_label": "1.156%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.156%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1140,
            1197,
            1117,
            1254,
            1231,
            1277,
            1311,
            1345
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009189640769,
            0.017905102954,
            0.011961722488,
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            0.013729977117,
            0.007434944238
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 28,
        "value": 0.011362925849,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.136%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
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            1218,
            1137,
            1276,
            1253,
            1299,
            1334,
            1369
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.009031198686,
            0.017590149516,
            0.011755485893,
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            0.013493253373,
            0.007304601899
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": 29,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.117%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
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            1156,
            1298,
            1274,
            1322,
            1357,
            1392
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.008878127522,
            0.017301038062,
            0.01155624037,
            0.005494505495,
            0.018910741301,
            0.013264554164,
            0.007183908046
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 30,
        "value": 0.010984414335,
        "value_label": "1.098%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.098%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
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            1176,
            1320,
            1296,
            1344,
            1380,
            1416
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006666666667,
            0.00873015873,
            0.017006802721,
            0.011363636364,
            0.005401234568,
            0.018601190476,
            0.013043478261,
            0.007062146893
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010984414335,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 31,
        "value": 0.010803869602,
        "value_label": "1.080%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.080%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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          "annual_obligors": [
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            1281,
            1196,
            1342,
            1318,
            1366,
            1403,
            1440
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            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006557377049,
            0.008587041374,
            0.016722408027,
            0.011177347243,
            0.00531107739,
            0.018301610542,
            0.012829650748,
            0.006944444444
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010803869602,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010789324248,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 32,
        "value": 0.010630307418,
        "value_label": "1.063%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.063%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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          "annual_obligors": [
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            1302,
            1215,
            1364,
            1339,
            1389,
            1426,
            1463
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          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
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            18,
            10
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          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
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            0.008448540707,
            0.01646090535,
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        }
      },
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            1386,
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            1449,
            1487
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            18,
            10
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            0.016194331984,
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        }
      },
      {
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            1408,
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            1472,
            1510
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            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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        }
      },
      {
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        "value": 0.010139459386,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1430,
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            1495,
            1534
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            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.015698587127,
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        }
      },
      {
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        "value": 0.009985427671,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1452,
            1426,
            1478,
            1518,
            1558
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            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
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        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.015455950541,
            0.010330578512,
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            0.01185770751,
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 37,
        "value": 0.009836985069,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1474,
            1447,
            1501,
            1541,
            1581
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            20,
            15,
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            25,
            18,
            10
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            0.011680726801,
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        }
      },
      {
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            20,
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            18,
            10
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": 39,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
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            1518,
            1490,
            1546,
            1587,
            1628
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            20,
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            25,
            18,
            10
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          "annual_default_rates": [
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 40,
        "value": 0.009415212287,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.942%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            1512,
            1568,
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            1652
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            20,
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            25,
            18,
            10
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        }
      },
      {
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1676
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      },
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1584,
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            1699
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            20,
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            18,
            10
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            1723
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            1598,
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            1746
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            1770
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            20,
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            25,
            18,
            10
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1794
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            20,
            15,
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            25,
            18,
            10
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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            1771,
            1817
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            20,
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            25,
            18,
            10
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      },
      {
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
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        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.845%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
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            1794,
            1841
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            20,
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            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005128205128,
            0.006715506716,
            0.013080444735,
            0.008741258741,
            0.004154302671,
            0.014310246136,
            0.010033444816,
            0.005431830527
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008449404934,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.00843819393,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.014310246136,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005860841202,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 49,
        "value": 0.008342875389,
        "value_label": "0.834%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.834%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1580,
            1659,
            1548,
            1738,
            1706,
            1770,
            1817,
            1864
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005063291139,
            0.006630500301,
            0.012919896641,
            0.008630609896,
            0.004103165299,
            0.014124293785,
            0.009906439185,
            0.005364806867
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008342875389,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008332115188,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.014124293785,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005781418396,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 50,
        "value": 0.008238310751,
        "value_label": "0.824%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.824%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1600,
            1680,
            1568,
            1760,
            1728,
            1792,
            1840,
            1888
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.005,
            0.006547619048,
            0.012755102041,
            0.008522727273,
            0.004050925926,
            0.013950892857,
            0.009782608696,
            0.005296610169
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008238310751,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008227482679,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013950892857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005712582106,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 51,
        "value": 0.008136335235,
        "value_label": "0.814%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.814%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1620,
            1701,
            1588,
            1782,
            1750,
            1814,
            1863,
            1912
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004938271605,
            0.006466784245,
            0.012594458438,
            0.008417508418,
            0.004,
            0.013781697905,
            0.009661835749,
            0.005230125523
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008136335235,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008125445474,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013781697905,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00564536267,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 52,
        "value": 0.008037507256,
        "value_label": "0.804%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.804%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1640,
            1722,
            1607,
            1804,
            1771,
            1837,
            1886,
            1935
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.00487804878,
            0.006387921022,
            0.012445550716,
            0.008314855876,
            0.00395256917,
            0.013609145346,
            0.009544008484,
            0.005167958656
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008037507256,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008027038445,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013609145346,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005571638089,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 53,
        "value": 0.007940412816,
        "value_label": "0.794%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.794%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1660,
            1743,
            1627,
            1826,
            1793,
            1859,
            1909,
            1959
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004819277108,
            0.006310958118,
            0.012292562999,
            0.008214676889,
            0.003904071389,
            0.013448090371,
            0.00942902043,
            0.005104645227
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007940412816,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007929883139,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013448090371,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005507677555,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 54,
        "value": 0.007846259851,
        "value_label": "0.785%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.785%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1680,
            1764,
            1646,
            1848,
            1814,
            1882,
            1932,
            1982
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004761904762,
            0.006235827664,
            0.012150668287,
            0.008116883117,
            0.003858875413,
            0.013283740701,
            0.009316770186,
            0.005045408678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007846259851,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007836128677,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013283740701,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00543748085,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 55,
        "value": 0.007753704236,
        "value_label": "0.775%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.775%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1700,
            1785,
            1666,
            1870,
            1836,
            1904,
            1955,
            2006
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004705882353,
            0.006162464986,
            0.012004801921,
            0.008021390374,
            0.003812636166,
            0.013130252101,
            0.009207161125,
            0.004985044865
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007753704236,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.00774351311,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013130252101,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005376547864,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 56,
        "value": 0.007663307151,
        "value_label": "0.766%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.766%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1720,
            1806,
            1686,
            1892,
            1858,
            1926,
            1978,
            2030
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004651162791,
            0.006090808416,
            0.011862396204,
            0.007928118393,
            0.003767491927,
            0.01298026999,
            0.009100101112,
            0.004926108374
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007663307151,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007653061224,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.01298026999,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005316962839,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 57,
        "value": 0.007575574458,
        "value_label": "0.758%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.758%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1740,
            1827,
            1705,
            1914,
            1879,
            1949,
            2001,
            2053
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004597701149,
            0.006020799124,
            0.011730205279,
            0.007836990596,
            0.003725385844,
            0.012827090816,
            0.008995502249,
            0.004870920604
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007575574458,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.00756570215,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.012827090816,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005251516358,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 58,
        "value": 0.007489259836,
        "value_label": "0.749%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.749%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1760,
            1848,
            1725,
            1936,
            1901,
            1971,
            2024,
            2077
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004545454545,
            0.005952380952,
            0.011594202899,
            0.007747933884,
            0.003682272488,
            0.012683916794,
            0.008893280632,
            0.004814636495
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007489259836,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007479333421,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.012683916794,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005194656957,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 59,
        "value": 0.00740544549,
        "value_label": "0.741%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.741%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1780,
            1869,
            1744,
            1958,
            1922,
            1994,
            2047,
            2100
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004494382022,
            0.005885500268,
            0.011467889908,
            0.007660878447,
            0.003642039542,
            0.012537612839,
            0.008793356131,
            0.004761904762
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.00740544549,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007395873881,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.012537612839,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005132167349,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 60,
        "value": 0.00732294289,
        "value_label": "0.732%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.732%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1800,
            1890,
            1764,
            1980,
            1944,
            2016,
            2070,
            2124
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            11,
            20,
            15,
            7,
            25,
            18,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.004444444444,
            0.00582010582,
            0.011337868481,
            0.007575757576,
            0.003600823045,
            0.012400793651,
            0.008695652174,
            0.004708097928
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.00732294289,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007313317937,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.012400793651,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005077850761,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "name": "Failure/comparison",
    "description": "Synthetic failure/comparison sweep; only declared fields change while the topic contract remains fixed.",
    "canonical_step": 30,
    "summary": {
      "focus_step": 30,
      "focus_kind": "comparison",
      "canonical_output_match": false,
      "state_counts": {
        "current-below-long-run": 1,
        "current-above-long-run": 60
      },
      "value_min": 0.005563264454,
      "value_max": 0.02015569529,
      "segments": [
        {
          "start_step": 0,
          "end_step": 0,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "0.556%",
          "end_value_label": "0.556%"
        },
        {
          "start_step": 1,
          "end_step": 60,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "decision": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
          "start_value_label": "0.580%",
          "end_value_label": "2.016%"
        }
      ]
    },
    "states": [
      {
        "step": 0,
        "value": 0.005563264454,
        "value_label": "0.556%",
        "state": "current-below-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-below-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.556%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            6,
            6,
            6,
            6,
            6,
            6,
            6,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.005714285714,
            0.00612244898,
            0.005454545455,
            0.005555555556,
            0.005357142857,
            0.005217391304,
            0.005084745763
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.005563264454,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.005542725173,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.005357142857,
          "cycle_gap": -0.000206121596,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-below-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 1,
        "value": 0.005802422617,
        "value_label": "0.580%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.580%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            6,
            6,
            7,
            6,
            6,
            7,
            6,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.005714285714,
            0.007142857143,
            0.005454545455,
            0.005555555556,
            0.00625,
            0.005217391304,
            0.005084745763
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.005802422617,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.005773672055,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.00625,
          "cycle_gap": 0.000447577383,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 2,
        "value": 0.005802422617,
        "value_label": "0.580%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.580%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            6,
            6,
            7,
            6,
            6,
            7,
            6,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.005714285714,
            0.007142857143,
            0.005454545455,
            0.005555555556,
            0.00625,
            0.005217391304,
            0.005084745763
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.005802422617,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.005773672055,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.00625,
          "cycle_gap": 0.000447577383,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 3,
        "value": 0.00604158078,
        "value_label": "0.604%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.604%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            6,
            6,
            8,
            6,
            6,
            8,
            6,
            6
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.006,
            0.005714285714,
            0.008163265306,
            0.005454545455,
            0.005555555556,
            0.007142857143,
            0.005217391304,
            0.005084745763
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.00604158078,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.006004618938,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.007142857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001101276363,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 4,
        "value": 0.006968791522,
        "value_label": "0.697%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.697%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            9,
            7,
            7,
            9,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.009183673469,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008035714286,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.006968791522,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.006928406467,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008035714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001066922763,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 5,
        "value": 0.006968791522,
        "value_label": "0.697%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.697%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            9,
            7,
            7,
            9,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.009183673469,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008035714286,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.006968791522,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.006928406467,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008035714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001066922763,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 6,
        "value": 0.007207949686,
        "value_label": "0.721%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.721%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            10,
            7,
            7,
            10,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.010204081633,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008928571429,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007207949686,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007159353349,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008928571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001720621743,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 7,
        "value": 0.007207949686,
        "value_label": "0.721%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.721%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            10,
            7,
            7,
            10,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.010204081633,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.008928571429,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007207949686,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007159353349,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.008928571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.001720621743,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 8,
        "value": 0.007447107849,
        "value_label": "0.745%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.745%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            11,
            7,
            7,
            11,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.011224489796,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.009821428571,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007447107849,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007390300231,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.009821428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.002374320723,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 9,
        "value": 0.007686266012,
        "value_label": "0.769%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.769%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            12,
            7,
            7,
            12,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.012244897959,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.010714285714,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007686266012,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007621247113,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.010714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.003028019702,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 10,
        "value": 0.007686266012,
        "value_label": "0.769%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.769%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            12,
            7,
            7,
            12,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.012244897959,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.010714285714,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007686266012,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007621247113,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.010714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.003028019702,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 11,
        "value": 0.007925424175,
        "value_label": "0.793%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.793%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            7,
            7,
            13,
            7,
            7,
            13,
            7,
            7
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.007,
            0.006666666667,
            0.013265306122,
            0.006363636364,
            0.006481481481,
            0.011607142857,
            0.006086956522,
            0.00593220339
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.007925424175,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.007852193995,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.011607142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.003681718682,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 12,
        "value": 0.008852634918,
        "value_label": "0.885%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.885%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            14,
            8,
            8,
            14,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.014285714286,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.0125,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008852634918,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008775981524,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.003647365082,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 13,
        "value": 0.008852634918,
        "value_label": "0.885%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.885%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            14,
            8,
            8,
            14,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.014285714286,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.0125,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.008852634918,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.008775981524,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0125,
          "cycle_gap": 0.003647365082,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 14,
        "value": 0.009091793081,
        "value_label": "0.909%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.909%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            15,
            8,
            8,
            15,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.015306122449,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.013392857143,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009091793081,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.009006928406,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.013392857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.004301064062,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 15,
        "value": 0.009330951244,
        "value_label": "0.933%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.933%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            16,
            8,
            8,
            16,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.016326530612,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.014285714286,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009330951244,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.009237875289,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.014285714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.004954763042,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 16,
        "value": 0.009330951244,
        "value_label": "0.933%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.933%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            16,
            8,
            8,
            16,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.016326530612,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.014285714286,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009330951244,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.009237875289,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.014285714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.004954763042,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 17,
        "value": 0.009570109407,
        "value_label": "0.957%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.957%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            17,
            8,
            8,
            17,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.017346938776,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.015178571429,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009570109407,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.009468822171,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.015178571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005608462021,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 18,
        "value": 0.009570109407,
        "value_label": "0.957%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 0.957%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            8,
            8,
            17,
            8,
            8,
            17,
            8,
            8
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.008,
            0.007619047619,
            0.017346938776,
            0.007272727273,
            0.007407407407,
            0.015178571429,
            0.006956521739,
            0.006779661017
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.009570109407,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.009468822171,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.015178571429,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005608462021,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 19,
        "value": 0.01049732015,
        "value_label": "1.050%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.050%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            18,
            9,
            9,
            18,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.018367346939,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.016071428571,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01049732015,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.0103926097,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.016071428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.005574108422,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 20,
        "value": 0.010736478313,
        "value_label": "1.074%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.074%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            19,
            9,
            9,
            19,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.019387755102,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.016964285714,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010736478313,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010623556582,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.016964285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.006227807401,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 21,
        "value": 0.010736478313,
        "value_label": "1.074%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.074%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            19,
            9,
            9,
            19,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.019387755102,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.016964285714,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010736478313,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010623556582,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.016964285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.006227807401,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 22,
        "value": 0.010975636476,
        "value_label": "1.098%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.098%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            20,
            9,
            9,
            20,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.020408163265,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.017857142857,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.010975636476,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.010854503464,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.017857142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.006881506381,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 23,
        "value": 0.011214794639,
        "value_label": "1.121%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.121%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            21,
            9,
            9,
            21,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.021428571429,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.01875,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011214794639,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011085450346,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.01875,
          "cycle_gap": 0.007535205361,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 24,
        "value": 0.011214794639,
        "value_label": "1.121%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.121%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            21,
            9,
            9,
            21,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.021428571429,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.01875,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011214794639,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011085450346,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.01875,
          "cycle_gap": 0.007535205361,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 25,
        "value": 0.011453952803,
        "value_label": "1.145%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.145%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            22,
            9,
            9,
            22,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.022448979592,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.019642857143,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011453952803,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011316397229,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.019642857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00818890434,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 26,
        "value": 0.011453952803,
        "value_label": "1.145%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.145%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            9,
            9,
            22,
            9,
            9,
            22,
            9,
            9
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.009,
            0.008571428571,
            0.022448979592,
            0.008181818182,
            0.008333333333,
            0.019642857143,
            0.007826086957,
            0.007627118644
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.011453952803,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.011316397229,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.019642857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.00818890434,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 27,
        "value": 0.012381163545,
        "value_label": "1.238%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.238%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            23,
            10,
            10,
            23,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.023469387755,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.020535714286,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012381163545,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012240184758,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.020535714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.008154550741,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 28,
        "value": 0.012620321708,
        "value_label": "1.262%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.262%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            24,
            10,
            10,
            24,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.024489795918,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.021428571429,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012620321708,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00880824972,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 29,
        "value": 0.012620321708,
        "value_label": "1.262%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.262%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            24,
            10,
            10,
            24,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.024489795918,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.021428571429,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012620321708,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.01247113164,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.00880824972,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 30,
        "value": 0.012859479872,
        "value_label": "1.286%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.286%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            25,
            10,
            10,
            25,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.025510204082,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.022321428571,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.012859479872,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012702078522,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.0094619487,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 31,
        "value": 0.013098638035,
        "value_label": "1.310%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.310%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            26,
            10,
            10,
            26,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.026530612245,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.023214285714,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013098638035,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012933025404,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01011564768,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 32,
        "value": 0.013098638035,
        "value_label": "1.310%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.310%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            26,
            10,
            10,
            26,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.026530612245,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.023214285714,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013098638035,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.012933025404,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.01011564768,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 33,
        "value": 0.013337796198,
        "value_label": "1.334%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.334%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            10,
            10,
            27,
            10,
            10,
            27,
            10,
            10
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.01,
            0.009523809524,
            0.027551020408,
            0.009090909091,
            0.009259259259,
            0.024107142857,
            0.008695652174,
            0.008474576271
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.013337796198,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.013163972286,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.024107142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.010769346659,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 34,
        "value": 0.01426500694,
        "value_label": "1.427%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.427%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            28,
            11,
            11,
            28,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.028571428571,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.025,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01426500694,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014087759815,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.025,
          "cycle_gap": 0.01073499306,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 35,
        "value": 0.01426500694,
        "value_label": "1.427%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.427%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            28,
            11,
            11,
            28,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.028571428571,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.025,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01426500694,
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          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 36,
        "value": 0.014504165104,
        "value_label": "1.450%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.450%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
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          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            29,
            11,
            11,
            29,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.029591836735,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.025892857143,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014504165104,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.014318706697,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.011388692039,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 37,
        "value": 0.014504165104,
        "value_label": "1.450%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.450%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            29,
            11,
            11,
            29,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.029591836735,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.025892857143,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 38,
        "value": 0.014743323267,
        "value_label": "1.474%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.474%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            30,
            11,
            11,
            30,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.030612244898,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.026785714286,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.014743323267,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.012042391019,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 39,
        "value": 0.01498248143,
        "value_label": "1.498%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.498%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            31,
            11,
            11,
            31,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.031632653061,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.027678571429,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01498248143,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.012696089998,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 40,
        "value": 0.01498248143,
        "value_label": "1.498%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.498%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            31,
            11,
            11,
            31,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.031632653061,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.027678571429,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.01498248143,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.012696089998,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 41,
        "value": 0.015221639593,
        "value_label": "1.522%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.522%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            11,
            11,
            32,
            11,
            11,
            32,
            11,
            11
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.011,
            0.010476190476,
            0.032653061224,
            0.01,
            0.010185185185,
            0.028571428571,
            0.009565217391,
            0.009322033898
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.015221639593,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.013349788978,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 42,
        "value": 0.016148850336,
        "value_label": "1.615%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.615%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            12,
            33,
            12,
            12,
            33,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
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            0.011428571429,
            0.033673469388,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.029464285714,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.016148850336,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.013315435379,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 43,
        "value": 0.016148850336,
        "value_label": "1.615%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.615%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            12,
            33,
            12,
            12,
            33,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.011428571429,
            0.033673469388,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.029464285714,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.016148850336,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.013315435379,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 44,
        "value": 0.016388008499,
        "value_label": "1.639%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.639%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            12,
            34,
            12,
            12,
            34,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.011428571429,
            0.034693877551,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.030357142857,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.016388008499,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.013969134358,
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 45,
        "value": 0.016388008499,
        "value_label": "1.639%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.639%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            12,
            34,
            12,
            12,
            34,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
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        },
        "output": {
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            0.011428571429,
            0.034693877551,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.030357142857,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 46,
        "value": 0.016627166662,
        "value_label": "1.663%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.663%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            12,
            35,
            12,
            12,
            35,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.011428571429,
            0.035714285714,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.03125,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 47,
        "value": 0.016866324825,
        "value_label": "1.687%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.687%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            12,
            12,
            36,
            12,
            12,
            36,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.011428571429,
            0.036734693878,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.032142857143,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.687%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            36,
            12,
            12,
            36,
            12,
            12
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.012,
            0.011428571429,
            0.036734693878,
            0.010909090909,
            0.011111111111,
            0.032142857143,
            0.010434782609,
            0.010169491525
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          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 49,
        "value": 0.017793535568,
        "value_label": "1.779%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.779%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
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            13,
            37,
            13,
            13,
            37,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.037755102041,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.033035714286,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
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          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 50,
        "value": 0.018032693731,
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        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.803%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
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            13,
            13,
            38,
            13,
            13,
            38,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.038775510204,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.033928571429,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018032693731,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.015895877698,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 51,
        "value": 0.018032693731,
        "value_label": "1.803%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.803%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            13,
            13,
            38,
            13,
            13,
            38,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.038775510204,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.033928571429,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018032693731,
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          "cycle_gap": 0.015895877698,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 52,
        "value": 0.018271851894,
        "value_label": "1.827%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.827%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            13,
            13,
            39,
            13,
            13,
            39,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.039795918367,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.034821428571,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018271851894,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018013856813,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.034821428571,
          "cycle_gap": 0.016549576677,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 53,
        "value": 0.018511010057,
        "value_label": "1.851%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.851%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            13,
            13,
            40,
            13,
            13,
            40,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.040816326531,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.035714285714,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018511010057,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018244803695,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.035714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.017203275657,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 54,
        "value": 0.018511010057,
        "value_label": "1.851%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.851%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            13,
            13,
            40,
            13,
            13,
            40,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.040816326531,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.035714285714,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018511010057,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018244803695,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.035714285714,
          "cycle_gap": 0.017203275657,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 55,
        "value": 0.018750168221,
        "value_label": "1.875%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.875%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            13,
            13,
            41,
            13,
            13,
            41,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.041836734694,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.036607142857,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018750168221,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018475750577,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.036607142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.017856974636,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 56,
        "value": 0.018750168221,
        "value_label": "1.875%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.875%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            13,
            13,
            41,
            13,
            13,
            41,
            13,
            13
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.013,
            0.012380952381,
            0.041836734694,
            0.011818181818,
            0.012037037037,
            0.036607142857,
            0.011304347826,
            0.011016949153
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.018750168221,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.018475750577,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.036607142857,
          "cycle_gap": 0.017856974636,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 57,
        "value": 0.019677378963,
        "value_label": "1.968%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.968%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            14,
            14,
            42,
            14,
            14,
            42,
            14,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.014,
            0.013333333333,
            0.042857142857,
            0.012727272727,
            0.012962962963,
            0.0375,
            0.012173913043,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019677378963,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019399538106,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.0375,
          "cycle_gap": 0.017822621037,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 58,
        "value": 0.019916537126,
        "value_label": "1.992%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.992%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            14,
            14,
            43,
            14,
            14,
            43,
            14,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.014,
            0.013333333333,
            0.04387755102,
            0.012727272727,
            0.012962962963,
            0.038392857143,
            0.012173913043,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019916537126,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019630484988,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.038392857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.018476320017,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 59,
        "value": 0.019916537126,
        "value_label": "1.992%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 1.992%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            14,
            14,
            43,
            14,
            14,
            43,
            14,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.014,
            0.013333333333,
            0.04387755102,
            0.012727272727,
            0.012962962963,
            0.038392857143,
            0.012173913043,
            0.01186440678
          ],
          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.019916537126,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019630484988,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.038392857143,
          "cycle_gap": 0.018476320017,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      },
      {
        "step": 60,
        "value": 0.02015569529,
        "value_label": "2.016%",
        "state": "current-above-long-run",
        "diagnostic": "current-above-long-run: simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates",
        "guidance": "Inspect the intermediate components before interpreting 2.016%; definition, horizon, clocks, and calibration remain part of the output.",
        "input": {
          "annual_obligors": [
            1000,
            1050,
            980,
            1100,
            1080,
            1120,
            1150,
            1180
          ],
          "annual_defaults": [
            14,
            14,
            44,
            14,
            14,
            44,
            14,
            14
          ],
          "current_year_index": 5,
          "minimum_years": 5
        },
        "output": {
          "annual_default_rates": [
            0.014,
            0.013333333333,
            0.044897959184,
            0.012727272727,
            0.012962962963,
            0.039285714286,
            0.012173913043,
            0.01186440678
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          "through_the_cycle_pd": 0.02015569529,
          "pooled_default_rate": 0.019861431871,
          "current_observed_default_rate": 0.039285714286,
          "cycle_gap": 0.019130018996,
          "observation_years": 8,
          "state": "current-above-long-run",
          "reason": "simple-average-of-annual-one-year-rates"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
]