D18-F04-A13 · QUALITY & DISTRESS · SYNTHETIC DATA

Modified Jones Discretionary Accrual Model

Change one synthetic accounting driver, watch peer design matrix, coefficients, target fitted value, and residual bridge recompute, and explain the result without crossing the minimum-peer and full-rank estimation gates.

The learning loop

1 · PredictName the direction before moving a driver.
2 · InspectFind the ratio, signal, contribution, or residual that changed.
3 · ReconcileTie the components to the raw score or model residual.
4 · BoundInterpret the screen without turning it into a finding.
Make a prediction before stepping

Base → current bridge

Scenario base
Current state
Headline delta

Keyboard: Left/Right step, Home resets, and Space plays or pauses when focus is outside a form control.

Current model output

Frozen equation

TA_i/A_i,t-1 = α1(1/A_i,t-1)+α2((ΔREV_i-ΔREC_i)/A_i,t-1)+α3(PPE_i/A_i,t-1)+ε_i; DA_target=scaled TA-NDA

Component and diagnostic ledger

Changed cards are purple. Start here before interpreting the headline.

Response across 61 states

Model output across the selected accounting scenarioA deterministic synthetic sensitivity line with the current state marked.

Interpretation gate

Boundary: the minimum-peer and full-rank estimation gates

Visible intermediate: peer design matrix, coefficients, target fitted value, and residual bridge

Open exact point-in-time input and structured output

Input

Output


Synthetic teaching data only. A model score or residual is a historically specified screen—not an audit conclusion, rating, fraud finding, default forecast, or investment recommendation.