D09 Forecast Models · guided laboratory · 8 scenarios · 1,440 synthetic observations

SARIMA/SARIMAX: forecast first, reveal the holdout second

Choose a scenario, change one model parameter, and step through a 36-observation holdout. State, benchmarks, and metrics update without letting future actuals alter the frozen forecast.

Frozen forecast and causally revealed actuals

trainingforecastrevealed holdoutfrozen benchmark

18-row origin and holdout audit

Training state ends at index 143. Only holdout rows through the selected horizon are shown. The benchmark is frozen at the same origin.

phaseindexvalueforecastbenchmarkerror